Get Seattle Seahawks Vs. San Francisco 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (1/14/23) matchup.
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Seattle Seahawks Vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks
The first game of Super Wild Card weekend in the NFL comes between two NFC West foes in the Seahawks and 49ers. San Francisco got the better of Seattle twice this year, and the current spread in this game reflects that as they are 9.5 or 10-point home favorites.
The weather is going to be important in this game as we’re looking at a forecast of a 100% chance of rain and winds reaching 15 mph. With that, the over/under has been bet down to 42 or 42.5 points.
You can find more coverage of this and every Wild Card game on the Lineups YouTube channel. Be sure to use the Seahawks vs. 49ers player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and ensure you’re getting the best value. Let’s get to work.
Christian McCaffrey Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
On our official NFL player props page, I locked in McCaffrey over 72.5 rushing yards on Tuesday night. As of Wednesday morning, the line has already moved up to 75.5 yards on most books. FanDuel is still offering it at 74.5 yards, so be sure to compare odds before placing your bet.
McCaffrey went over 100 rushing yards in three of his final five games of the season, and he’s running behind an offensive line that ranked fourth in adjusted line yards this season. The Seahawks ranked 25th in defensive line yards, and they lost their leading tackler Jordyn Brooks to an ACL injury.
The game environment supports McCaffrey here with the 49ers as big home favorites in a rainy game with a low total – we should see a heavy dose of the run game. The return to health of Elijah Mitchell throws somewhat of a wrench into this, but I still expect CMC to see a big workload – the Niners acquired him for their playoff run.
Geno Smith Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Like the CMC prop, I posted this on our main player props page on Tuesday night and the line has already moved from 233.5 to 230.5. I would expect further movement towards the under, and FanDuel already has this at 227.5.
The Geno Smith story was a fun one this year, but this game does not set up well for him at all. The 49ers already held him to an average of 217.5 passing yards in his two appearances against them this season, and this game will be even tougher given the pressure of the playoffs and the expected poor weather.
Smith has been regressing in recent weeks statistically despite playing two bottom-half pass defenses by DVOA in the final three weeks of the season. The offensive line is beginning to atrophy while Tyler Lockett is banged up and Marquise Goodwin and Will Dissly are out.
The Seahawks are ten-point underdogs in this game, but the trailing game script doesn’t necessarily help Smith as the team will abandon the run somewhat and the play-action passing game will follow. Smith has relied on the play-action for 31% of his passing yardage this year, and he ranks third with a 75.3% completion rate on play-action.
D.K. Metcalf Under 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Metcalf prop hasn’t moved quite as much as the CMC and Smith props, but it is down a yard from where I posted it on Tuesday night. There’s strong correlation between this and the Smith under, so don’t feel pressured to overplay these props. Perhaps put a half unit on each if you feel more comfortable.
However, this is a clear spot to fade Metcalf for a few reasons. First of all, the 49ers are fourth in DVOA against WR1s this year, primarily thanks to the elite play of Charvarius Ward. Across two games against Metcalf, he held him to 38 yards on seven targets as the nearest defender per PFF.
Charvarius Ward vs. DK Metcalf round 3 coming up on Saturday
Here’s how Charvarius has done against DK in the 2 matchups this season:
🔒 7 targets
🔒 38 yards total allowed
🔒 2 pass breakups
🔒 0 touchdowns allowed pic.twitter.com/UHfhs37ht3
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) January 9, 2023
Overall, Metcalf was held under 60 receiving yards in his two games against the 49ers. That’s primarily due to their zone defense. Metcalf averages 3.06 yards per route run against man coverage and 1.53 yards per route run against zone.
While the trailing game script could mean more passing volume, I don’t expect that to benefit Metcalf given the matchup. The Seahawks also have an implied team total of just 16.5 points, so we aren’t expecting them to put up a ton of offense in the wet conditions at Levi’s Stadium.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185 Caesars)
I’m not overly excited about playing touchdown props in a game with an over/under of 42.5 points, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention George Kittle. The 49ers tight end had seven touchdowns in the final four weeks of the regular season, more than he had scored in any of his first five seasons in the NFL.
While that pace is quite obviously unsustainable, Kittle did score twice against the Seahawks earlier this season. Seattle has allowed the most receiving yards per game to tight ends, and Kittle leads the NFL with a 133.6 passer rating when targeted.
The return of Deebo Samuel throws a wrench into things somewhat, and this isn’t an offense lacking for red-zone weapons. As such, I don’t expect nearly 80% of Brock Purdy’s touchdowns to continue to go to Kittle as has been the case thus far. However, the matchup is ideal and Kittle is on fire, so I don’t blame you for playing it.
— Sᴘᴏʀᴛs 24/7 (@Sports_24x7_) December 16, 2022