Sportsbooks Facing Huge Losses as NFL Favorites are 8-5 ATS in Week 6
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Last week, Lineups.com resident sports betting aficionado Anthony Elio wrote about how sportsbooks were hammered by the Week 5 NFL games as favorites went 9-7 against the spread. Week 6 was even worse for the books, though, as favorites covered in eight of the eleven games on Sunday. Naturally, sportsbooks will see the public gravitate towards betting on the favored team to cover as lines are designed to entice the average bettor. On most weeks, sportsbooks plan their odds so they will cover their losses and then some. However, Week 6 was a rare losing week for sportsbooks, given the success of favored teams.
How Good Have Favorites Been?
Favorites are now 43-51 ATS on the year, which is just a 46.2% success rate. If you bet on the favored team to cover in every game this season, you’d be losing money overall even after the incredibly successful Week 6. Road favorites have been strangely profitable despite the supposed home-field advantage, especially with having fans back in stadiums. Road favorites are 21-17 ATS this year and were 6-1 ATS in Week 6. We never advise overtly chasing trends without confidence in the bets you are placing, but the success of road favorites this year is something to keep an eye on.
Notable Week 6 Winners
If you bet on all of the favorites to win in Week 6, you did pretty well for yourself. The Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Los Angeles Rams didn’t just cover the spread – they covered their respective spreads by an average of 18.1 points. The Chargers suffered just their second ATS loss of the year while the Cardinals, Packers, Cowboys, Rams, and Colts extended their seasons as five of only nine teams with a winning record ATS this year. The Packers ballooned to 6.5-point road favorites over the Bears and won by 10 points. The Vikings escaped in overtime with a 34-28 win after closing as 2.5-point road favorites over the Panthers. Minnesota joins eleven other teams with a 3-3 record ATS this season.
In the early window of NFL games, the favorite covered in every game. The Cowboys’ fantastic overtime game-winning touchdown reception by CeeDee Lamb allowed Dallas to cover their 3.5-point spread and wrap up a brilliant day for the public. The only underdogs who covered heading into Sunday Night were the Raiders and Cardinals, both of whom won outright. The Steelers beat the Seahawks at home but failed to cover the spread. You’d be forgiven if you found the early slate of NFL games quite boring as there were only two of the ten afternoon games that finished with a final point differential of one touchdown or less. Both of those games went to overtime. The Sunday Night Football game became the third overtime contest on the day.
Why Was Week 6 So Bad For Sportsbooks?
The average bettor is very likely to back the favorite to cover as the favorite is generally viewed as the better team. However, that is typically a faulty strategy as there has only been one other week this season where favorites had gone better than .500 against the spread – that came in Week 5 when favorites were 9-7 ATS. Craig Mucklow, director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, called Week 6 “a monumental day for our bettors” and “their best Sunday of the year.” Caesars reportedly suffered a multiple seven-figure loss in Week 5, and it’s likely Week 6 was even worse with favorites 8-5 ATS on the week.
