Steelers Vs. Dolphins (10/23/22) Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay Strategy + SGP Picks

On Sunday Night Football this week, we have an exciting matchup between two up-and-coming teams in the AFC in the Steelers and Dolphins. As I do for every primetime game, I’m putting together a Same Game Parlay (SGP) that I believe has a great chance of winning. We’ve been so close to hitting one of these in the last few games, and I love the track we’re on here. Let’s get to work.

Steelers Vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay Sunday Night Football

We have some awesome choices between these two teams in the player props market, but to get us started, I’m simply taking the over 45.5 points. I believe both offenses have unique advantages over the opposing defenses, as I’ll break down momentarily, and I will likely be making an official play on the over in this game as a separate bet before kickoff. Stay tuned for that, but let’s lock it in for our SGP here.

The first player I want to target in the props market is Tyreek Hill. The Buccaneers couldn’t take advantage of the Steelers’ secondary injuries last week, and while Minkah Fitzpatrick is returning for this game, they still have issues to sort through as they rank 25th in yards per pass allowed this season. You can get Hill’s receiving yardage prop at 80.5, and he’s averaging 116.8 yards per game this season. Pittsburgh only gets pressure at the 29th-best rate, so Tua Tagovailoa should have plenty of time to get the ball to Hill downfield.

I’m also taking the over 255.5 passing yards for Tagovailoa in this game. Barring unforeseen defensive or special teams touchdowns, I expect the Dolphins to be throwing plenty in neutral game scripts, and even in positive game scripts if they get the lead. We don’t have a big sample size of Tua in Mike McDaniels’ system, but we do know that it’s very quarterback-friendly and he put up a whopping 469 yards against the Bills prior to his injury.

On the other side, I’m taking Kenny Pickett’s passing yards, which was one of my player props in my article for this game. Pickett has been excellent against the blitz so far in his short career, and the Dolphins blitz at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. Pickett is the fifth-highest graded quarterback under pressure this season per PFF. Miami’s defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and 7th against the run, so I will be betting on Pittsburgh needing to air out the offense more. I’ll take Pickett’s passing yardage at 227.5.

I’m also taking the over on receiving yards for George Pickens at 43.5. I wrote about the bet on his longest reception prop in my article, and that’s my preferred choice, but I believe he hits the over on this yardage total. Pickens clearly has strong chemistry with his fellow rookie Pickett, and while Chase Claypool had the bigger game last week, that was primarily with Mitchell Trubisky. Pickens had a total of 185 yards over the two weeks with mostly Pickett under center, and I like him to have a big game this week.

Put it all together, and we have a five-leg SGP that looks very enticing. Let’s root for a shootout on Sunday night:

• Over 45.5 Total Match Points (-118)
• Tyreek Hill Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)
• George Pickens Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Kenny Pickett Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Full SGP Odds: +920 ($10 wins $92.01)

If you’re feeling extra frisky, you can also toss in a couple of touchdown scorers to really boost our SGP. Here’s the same layout but with Hill and Pickens to score this week:

• Over 45.5 Total Match Points (-118)
• Tyreek Hill Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
• Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)
• George Pickens Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310)
• Kenny Pickett Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Full SGP Odds: +3667 ($10 wins $366.73)