Super Bowl 57 Anytime Touchdown Odds + Strategy: Analysis in How to Approach All Anytime TD Bets
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Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles anytime touchdown picks & odds for the (02/12/2023) Super Bowl 57 matchup
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Anytime TD Odds
The biggest sports betting event of the year is upon us, as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57. An estimated $16 billion will be bet on this game across game lines, player props, parlays and the ever popular novelty props like the national anthem, coin toss and Gatorade color.
One of the most popular player prop bets is the anytime touchdown. Betting on an anytime touchdown is simple: you are picking a player you think will score a touchdown at any point in the game. There are several things to keep in mind when betting on an anytime touchdown, and we’re going to break that down for you to help you place your bets on Super Bowl 57.
Anytime TD Betting Rules
When betting on anytime touchdowns, it’s important to know that scoring a touchdown means a player either receives a touchdown pass or crosses the goal line with the ball. That means that passing touchdowns for a quarterback don’t count – that would be too easy!
So if you want to bet on a Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown, you are primarily betting that he will rush one in, which he has done 15 times this season (including playoffs). Or perhaps you think the Eagles will try to repeat the Philly Special trick play from Super Bowl 52 where quarterback Nick Foles actually caught a touchdown pass. That would also cash an anytime touchdown bet.
Anytime touchdown bets are primarily focused on offensive players, but you can also bet on a team’s defense and special teams to score a touchdown. For that bet to win, you need either a punt return touchdown, a kick return touchdown, a blocked field goal or punt returned for a touchdown, a fumble returned for a touchdown, or an interception returned for a touchdown.
Some sportsbooks only allow defensive touchdowns and do not include special teams, so those first three scenarios would not cash a bet on a defensive touchdown. Double check the rules with your sportsbook of choice to confirm if special teams touchdowns are included.
One nice thing about betting on a defensive or special teams touchdown is that you don’t need to pick a specific player. Similar to the way the defensive/special teams scoring works in fantasy football, any touchdown scored by a player on defense or special teams would count (with the exception of IDP leagues). Still, even with a wider range of outcomes, betting on a defensive or special teams touchdown is generally very unpredictable, so focusing on offensive players makes more sense.
Another important note about defensive and special teams touchdowns is that an offensive player scoring a special teams touchdown usually counts as a touchdown for both the defense/special teams and for that particular player. However, some sportsbooks will not cash two different bets for the same touchdown, so a special teams touchdown would only cash a bet for that team’s defense and special teams, and not the specific player that scored.
For example, if you bet on a Kadarius Toney anytime touchdown, and he returns a punt for a touchdown, only bets on the Chiefs defense/special teams would cash, but bets on Toney would not. Most sportsbooks would cash both bets in that scenario, but some do not, so double check the rules with your sportsbook of choice.
With those particulars out of the way, let’s talk strategy when betting on anytime touchdowns.
Anytime TD Betting Strategy
Let’s start by looking at what to expect when you look at anytime touchdown odds.
Breaking Down Anytime TD Odds
When you’re looking at the odds for anytime touchdowns, you will usually see one or two players in any given matchup with negative odds. These are generally the best players on their respective teams – and some of the best across the league – who score touchdowns at the highest rate.
For Super Bowl 57, the odds for Travis Kelce to score a touchdown are less than even money at most sportsbooks, and the odds for Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders are also negative at some books. All three of those players scored at least 11 touchdowns this season and have scored multiple touchdowns in the playoffs. Kelce has 15 career postseason touchdowns and has scored in 11 of his 17 career postseason games, including his last five in a row and eight of his last nine.
Then you will find several players with odds between +100 and +180. These are typically the other starting offensive playmakers, although less productive starters still may have better odds. For Super Bowl 57, the players in this category include A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert for the Eagles, and Isiah Pacheco for the Chiefs. Given the volume of red zone targets commanded by Kelce, most of the Chiefs’ other pass catchers have odds of +200 or greater.
Finding Value with Anytime TD Bets
Betting on players like Kelce and Hurts who have the lowest odds might seem likely a relatively safe bet, but it generally does not offer very good value. A good way to get some action on those players’ anytime touchdown odds is to include them in a Same Game Parlay. For example, as of this writing Kelce’s anytime touchdown odds at DraftKings Sportsbook are -135. However, if you combine that with another relatively safe bet like over 41.5 total points (-330), you can get a two-leg parlay for +115 odds.
Another good strategy for finding value with anytime touchdown bets is to look for players whose role in the offense has increased recently, as this often will not be reflected in the odds. For example, Kenneth Gainwell has led the Eagles’ backfield in snaps in the postseason with a 39.6% snap share, which is a big increase from his 28.1% share in the regular season. He is also averaging 10 more touches per game than he did in the regular season. At +360 odds on FanDuel, he looks like a good value to score a touchdown compared to Sanders’ odds of +120.
On the other hand, Jerick McKinnon may seem like a good value with +205 odds at Caesars considering he scored 10 touchdowns in the regular season. However, with the recent emergence of rookie Isiah Pacheco and the return from injury of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, McKinnon might see his typical snap share and volume reduced in this game, so he would be a risky bet to score an anytime touchdown.
It’s also important to note that anytime touchdown odds will vary from one sportsbook to the next. For example, as of this writing the odds for JuJu Smith-Schuster are +240 at DraftKings but you can get them for +320 at FanDuel. On a $10 bet, you would win an additional $8 by betting at FanDuel. As with many other prop bets, you can find value by shopping around to get the best odds.
Be sure to check out the rest of our content for Super Bowl 57 including our favorite picks for anytime touchdowns.
