Super Bowl Coin Toss History & Strategy Guide

The Super Bowl Coin toss has become one of the popular prop bets for the game. It is becoming a staple of Super Bowl prop betting, and thousands of bets flock to it each year. The coin toss for the big game is also becoming a spectacle of its own.

Any regular coin toss will have the team captains, an official, and maybe a few media members. For the Super Bowl, nearly 100 people are surrounding the coin toss for the big event. In Super Bowl LII, the coin toss was the most bet prop for that game.

Something about betting the ultimate 50/50 odds gets people wanting in on the action despite not having favorable odds. Here is everything you need to know about betting the Super Bowl coin toss.

Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds

Super Bowl Coin Toss History

Heads: 25 times
Tails: 28 times
Most coin toss wins: Cowboys (6)
Longest winning streak: Miami (3)

The coin toss has started every Super Bowl off since the beginning. In the 54-coin flips, tails have hit 29 times compared to heads’ 25. The 50/50 odds are almost identical even after 54 tries.

Interestingly, tails are on a five-game winning streak after hitting in this year’s Super Bowl. Tails now tie heads for the longest winning streak. The coin has come tails in five of the last seven Super Bowls. In the first Super Bowl, heads were the correct call.

Winning the Super Bowl coin toss does not translate to success, however. The team that has won the coin toss has gone on to win the Super Bowl 24 times, posting a .444-win percentage. Maybe losing the coin toss gives the team the extra motivation for the game. Out of the winning teams that won the coin toss, heads and tails have come up 12 times each, showing its true 50/50 odds.

The team with the most coin toss wins is the Dallas Cowboys at six. Dallas has won the coin toss, picking heads three times and tails three times, and the next team is the San Francisco 49ers coming in with five-coin toss wins. The Niners have won the coin toss with tails four times and heads once. Rounding out the top three is the Miami Dolphins. Miami has won the coin toss four times by winning on heads three times and tails once.

Value on the Coin Toss

Overall, betting the coin toss is not the most profitable strategy given the unfair odds bookmakers put on the 50/50 event. A coin has a 50 percent chance of landing on heads or tails, and in the sports betting world, an event that has a 50 percent chance of happening is listed at +100 odds.

In reality, the sports betting odds of the coin toss should sit at +100 for heads and +100 for tails. However, sportsbooks do not give bettors these odds. In Super Bowl LIV, sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings gave odds of -103 for both heads and tails at their site.

-103 odds convert to a 50.7 percent chance of happening. Therefore, a bettor wagering on a 50 percent chance of something happen with 50.7 percent odds means that they will lose .7 percent value over time. This makes betting the coin toss a losing bet.

This does not discourage bettors, however. Of course, there is the thrill of betting the coin toss as it is one of the first events to bet on during the Super Bowl next to the National Anthem. There is also something exhilarating betting something with true 50/50 odds and the event happening so quickly.

One thing sportsbooks have done, to get more action on the coin toss is different prop bets with the event. During last year’s Super Bowl, MyBookie gave out odds on the coin toss, which team will win the coin toss, will the winner of the coin toss win the Super Bowl, and will the team calling the coin toss to make the correct call?

The different bets give bettors more options to wager even than just heads or tails. Some can argue that there is more handicapping and being able to find an edge with four different types of bets that can be placed that go along with the coin toss.

People can handicap the fact that teams that win the coin toss only win the Super Bowl 44 percent of the time. Little things like this help sportsbooks get more action, and also give bettors more options on bets to make.

Finding an Edge in the Coin Toss

The coin toss has a 50 percent chance it lands on heads and a 50 percent chance it lands on tails. Sportsbooks will never give you odds in favor of betting heads or tails on a coin toss.

However, there could be a chance to bet the Super Bowl coin toss using recent history strategically. Studies have shown that if you flipped a coin 1,000 times, then there is a very good chance that the coin will land on heads 500 times and land on tails 500 times.

Overall, the coin toss will always regress to an even number of times each side the coin will land on. Since the start of the Super Bowl era, tails have come up 29 times, and heads have come up 25 times. I would personally lean towards heads to the next Super Bowl, knowing there is a regression that will come with tails.

This might be the best chance to find an “edge” on a 50/50 chance of something happening. Also, tracking historical data from the coin toss and see if a side has won multiple years in a row. The odds of it coming up in consecutive years would be more of an outlier than seeing the other side come up.

Again, the coin toss has 50/50 odds of happening every time, but it also mindful to understand that wonky trends will happen during stretches. If you can find a trend and play it the opposite way, then there is a chance at profiting as their by going with the ole “tails never fails.”

Coin Toss FAQ

• How can I bet the coin toss?
• Who has the best coin toss odds?
• What strategy can I use to bet the coin toss?
• Has heads or tails come up more in the Super Bowl coin toss?
• Which team has won the coin toss the most in the Super Bowl?