The Super Bowl stage is set as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles. While betting spreads and moneylines remains the staple for bettors, the First Touchdown Scorer prop has skyrocketed in popularity recently due to long odds and immediate action. Here’s a breakdown of the Super Bowl First Touchdown Prop rules, odds, and strategy.
First Touchdown Odds
Wide receivers and running backs are expected to dominate this prop, but the shortest odds actually belong to a tight end. Tracis Kelce leads the way here as the only player in the +700s, which has been about his line for the playoffs. After Kelce, five of the next seven shortest odds belong to Eagles players.
That’s quite a statement by the books: either they heavily expect Philadelphia to score first or they don’t respect anyone outside of Kelce and Pacheco for Kansas City. Given Kelce’s touchdown dominance (15 regular season+playoff touchdowns) and Philadelphia’s rush defense problems (23rd in rushing defense EPA/Play), it makes sense.
Although I highly, highly doubt it occurs, no touchdown scorer is at +42,000 on FanDuel and +16,000 on DraftKings. That’s quite a discrepancy! The odds outside of this option generally align with each other, but it’s always key to shop around and find the best value. It could be the difference between a negative expected value play and a positive one.
First Touchdown Prop Rules
The goal of the prop is simple: correctly identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. That includes defenses, and a kick/punt return touchdown would be attributed to the defense. For example, if Patrick Mahomes opened the game with a pick six, then the bettor who wagered on Eagles First Touchdown would win while the bettor who wagered on any other player (ex: Travis Kelce) would lose.
One can also wager on no touchdown scored in the entire game; the Broncos Colts matchup managed to accomplish this on October 6th. However, there has never been a Super Bowl with no touchdown scored, and a matchup featuring Mahomes and Hurts doesn’t bode well for it.
First Touchdown Prop Strategy
A player can’t score if he is not on the field, so viewing snap counts is crucial. It shows which player is involved and which player is somewhat out of the loop. Since the name of the game is touchdowns, it’s vital to browse season touchdown stats, red zone touches, and red zone targets. Although it’s obvious, players with a large amount of red zone volume tend to perform well in this prop. Their touchdowns may come later in games though, so Game First TD% and Team First TD% provide insight into whether the player is frequently hitting the prop or not.
Every matchup is different, so examine the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Is a team extremely pass-heavy? Is the opposing defense excellent in coverage but weak against the run? I would recommend viewing the statistic Expected Points Added per Play for both the offense and defense, as well as for dropbacks and rushing in each. It’s a well-respected broad stat that captures a unit’s effectiveness.
In addition, it’s worth knowing how each team generally starts their games. Do they struggle to open the game or do they establish themselves immediately? How often a team scores on their first drive of the game is a vital statistic. Overall, the prop is a great way to start the game as a bettor.