Super Bowl LVII is less than three weeks away, and it’s already looking like the matchup is going to be a good one with the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers set to dual it out this weekend. Unlike most years, each team is below +350 in odds to win the whole thing with little separation between each team.
The Chiefs and Bengals both have a compelling case with their elite quarterbacks, while the Eagles and 49ers are loaded from top to bottom. If you’re set on one team, the value is there. Here’s a look at the futures odds for each of the four teams still alive and where there might be some value.
Cincinnati Bengals (+260)
It feels like fans have finally stopped overlooking the Bengals. That means anyone who took a chance on Bengals futures odds before the divisional round got much better value than you can get right now.
Still, you can’t help but feel like Cincinnati won’t be denied after last year’s Super Bowl disappointment. This Bengals team hasn’t lost since October, has beaten a healthy Patrick Mahomes three times in the last 13 months, and overcame a slew of offensive line injuries with flying colors against the Bills.
The value isn’t tremendous anymore with Cincinnati having the best odds of the two AFC finalists. Considering the Bengals have no questions defensively, great weapons, and an elite quarterback, it feels like all that can derail them from getting to Arizona for Super Bowl LVII is the Chiefs’ home-field advantage and/or the possibility their offensive line breaks down against Chris Jones.
Keep in mind, though, that if the Bengals get to the Super Bowl, they could have one or two starting linemen back on the field. There’s even a chance of a return for Alex Cappa or Jonah Williams against Kansas City. Bengals +260 isn’t the greatest value, but there’s more merit to it than some others.
Kansas City Chiefs (+300)
The Chiefs have fallen behind the Bengals as 2.5-point underdogs heading into Sunday, and that’s understandable. Between Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury that is almost guaranteed to keep him less than 100 percent and the Bengals’ history of success against the Chiefs, Cincinnati is the rightful favorite.
What we can’t do is ignore Andy Reid’s offense. The Bengals are going to score points. The Chiefs’ defense is the worst one still standing. That hasn’t been this team’s undoing since Mahomes’ first season as a starter, though. The question is whether Kansas City can keep up.
If one of the league’s top offensive lines can protect Mahomes well, I trust that Reid can come up with a gameplan to still utilize Mahomes’ ridiculously talented arm and his many, many options in the passing game.
If the Chiefs can get past the Bengals, Mahomes should be much healthier by the time Super Bowl LVII rolls around. That possibility, as well as Kansas City’s slide to +280, makes the Chiefs an intriguing bet as everyone seems to give up on the most talented quarterback in football.
Philadelphia Eagles (+250)
The Eagles have arguably the most talented roster in football from top-to-bottom, but +230 isn’t the greatest value when there’s still plenty to prove.
Jalen Hurts wasn’t asked to do too much against the Giants, though he looked healthy enough on some of his big throws. Reports indicating he’s not playing at 100 percent are a mild concern when we know he’d be going up against a quarterback with Super Bowl experience in Arizona.
Both Mahomes and Burrow have been there before. If the Eagles win the NFC title game, Hurts’ only playoff wins will have come against quarterbacks in a much different tier.
If you’re looking for a reason to believe in the Eagles, their offensive line is ridiculously good. If it can hold up against the 49ers’ defensive front this weekend, it should be able to handle the Bengals and would likely have its way with the Chiefs’ middling pass-rush.
Yes, there will be less value on the Eagles if they get past the 49ers and are one of two teams remaining, but I’d be hesitant to pull the trigger until we see what this team can do against a 49ers team that is in a different stratosphere than the Giants.
San Francisco 49ers (+350)
On the other side of things, the 49ers’ odds to win Super Bowl LVII have fallen to the bottom of the pack at +320. You have to wonder if this is an overreaction to Brock Purdy having just an alright day against an impressive Cowboys defensive front.
Purdy isn’t Mahomes, Burrow, or even Hurts, which goes back to the same point I just made about Hurts having to face an elite quarterback in the Super Bowl. What he does have, though, is Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and elite left tackle Trent Williams.
The 49ers are one of the few teams that has the talent up-and-down the roster to subdue such a loaded Eagles roster. At that point, it all hinges on whether Purdy can take what the defense gives him and avoid turnovers. So far, he’s proven he can do that.
The other burning question for the 49ers is whether Purdy can win in a tough environment on the road. That’s fair, and it’s why San Francisco is sitting here at +320. I’ll still say the 49ers are the better value than the Eagles.
Aside from Purdy, they’ve been here before, and Shanahan seems to be learning from his past mistakes. Betting that this is the year of destiny is respectable when the odds are +320.
Ja’Marr Chase Super Bowl MVP (+2200)
Voters made a wide receiver the Super Bowl MVP last year when Cooper Kupp rightfully won following the Rams’ win over the Bengals. The best receiver still standing in these playoffs (yes, over A.J. Brown and others) shouldn’t be counted out.
Chase has a touchdown in five of his last six games and should’ve had another against the Bills. The yards haven’t been astronomical, thanks to big contributions from complementary pieces like Hayden Hurst, but it only makes sense that Burrow would go to his longtime favorite target early and often with a championship on the line.
Chase had 89 yards on five catches (eight targets) in Super Bowl LVI last year. If the Bengals make it back and the offensive line is healthy enough to give Burrow better protection than last year, a big day could be in order.
Picking receivers for Super Bowl MVP is always tricky because their yards also go to the quarterback, but with Chase’s star power and +2200 odds, he’s worth the risk.