Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/26/23)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Buffalo Bills in Thursday Night Football (10/26/23). Get Buccaneers vs. Bills First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Buccaneers vs. Bills game?

Stefon Diggs First TD (+550 FD)

The Bills are favored to score the first touchdown here. They rank 10th in First TD%, while the Buccaneers sit at 28th. 

Tampa Bay’s elite run defense ranks second in opponent rush EPA per play, and they have allowed only one touchdown to running backs all year. Therefore, it’s a horrible matchup for James Cook, and the Bills prefer to throw the ball anyways. 

Diggs paces Buffalo in target share, receptions, yards, touchdowns and red zone targets. If there is a statistical category, Diggs probably leads the team. The star receiver is also tied with Gabe Davis at two first Bills touchdowns, which again leads the team. 

Overall, a Bills passing touchdown is the target for first touchdown here, so Diggs holds the most first touchdown equity of any player on the field. He must score first about 15% of the time based on his odds for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

Gabe Davis First TD (+1100 FD)

If it’s not Diggs, then Gabe Davis is the next man up in Buffalo’s passing offense. The speedster ranks second in targets, yards, touchdowns, red zone targets and first in first Bills touchdowns. Davis’ deep threat ability means Buffalo doesn’t need to be near the red zone for him to score. He ranks 3rd across the NFL in average depth of target behind only Rashid Shaheed and Amari Cooper. 

Given Tampa Bay’s stout run defense and inability to score the first touchdown themselves, grabbing Davis at +1100 is incredible value. He only needs to score first about 8% of the time based on his odds. 

Mike Evans First Buccaneers TD (+410 FD)

Tampa Bay only owns one rushing touchdown across the entire season, as Rachaad White has been ineffective behind this bad offensive line. However, Baker Mayfield is quietly leading a sturdy passing attack featuring a rejuvenated Mike Evans. Evans has scored Tampa Bay’s first touchdown in 3 of 6 games, and Buffalo’s injured secondary will likely be heavily exploited by the veteran. 

His deep threat ability and prolific jump ball skills make him an exceptional threat to score from anywhere; he easily holds the most first touchdown equity of any Buccaneer. 

Evans must score Tampa Bay’s first touchdown about 19 percent of the time here. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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