Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts (12/11/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 3-0
All Time Results: 81-76-1, +9.0 Units

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts – .25 Units

Even Jameis Winston isn’t supposed to turn the ball over this much.  Famous Jameis has a 4.3% interception rate this year, a career-high for one of the most turnover-prone starting QBs in recent memory.   How much of this trend is due to the growing pains that came when adjusting to Bruce Arians risk-for-the-biscuit downfield approach? I think maybe a lot.  If Winston had maintained his normal interception rate – 3.0% entering this season, we would have expected 5 fewer interceptions for the Buccaneers on the year.   This the same Buccaneers squad that line makers had as only a 3-point dog earlier this year against the Saints.  This team has talent.  A few less costly mistakes and instead of 5-7 this team is probably 7-5, in which case I think the betting market would clearly identify them as a superior to this Indianapolis Colts squad quickly heading in the wrong direction.

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Indianapolis Colts Under 21.5 – .25 Units

The Colts have battled a war of attrition on offense.  Although they likely get RB Marlon Mack back this week, I don’t think they have the horses to compete near their level they have the past couple of seasons.

Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory was in full effect when backup QB Jacoby Brissett filled in after Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement.  Brissett admirably leads this group to a 5-2 record heading into their game in Pittsburgh.  Then he got hurt and the offense fell apart.  While Brissett wasn’t lighting the world on fire before his injury, he was solidly above average QB.  Since he has come back he hasn’t registered a passer rating above 78.  For comparison, Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph currently view for 32nd best in the league with that metric, both of them right around 80.

A large part of the tailspin of the Colts passing attack revolves around the loss of WR T.Y. Hilton.  Since T.Y. Hilton played his first game for Indianapolis, the Colts are 1-7 SU & ATS in the eight games Hilton has missed, with an average ATS margin of -8.3.  That includes this year, where the Colts have gone 1-4 SU & ATS without Hilton with an ATS margin of -5.2.

Hilton came back in Week 12 against the Texans after a three-game absence.  He dropped a pass.  They lost the game.  He now may miss the rest of the season after his latest setback to his calf.  More than simply his production on the field, losing Hilton might be a psychological blow to this Colts team that began the season losing their talisman QB, and has been without their best RB for long stretches.  We saw last year with the San Francisco 49ers, multiple injuries to your most important players eventually catches up with you.

4-Team, 7-Point Teaser (+215): Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 vs. Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers +4 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs +10 @ New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings -6 vs. Detroit Lions -.25 Units

Find my thoughts on the Bucs game above, and the Chargers game right here.  The teaser play on the Chargers is another way of putting insurance on the fact the Charges always seems to find a way to blow a late lead.  This way, if the Chargers lose by a field goal we are in the clear.  I find it hard to believe this current Jaguars team could blowout anybody, especially not a team as talented on both sides of the ball as LA.

The Chiefs +10 feels solid to me because I think we are going to get our points.  Patrick Mahomes has scored less than 25 points in only 1 game in his career, Week 5 this year against the Colts.  In that game, the Colts held the ball for more than 2/3rds of the game thanks to a great gameplan and rushing attack.  With Patriots RB, Sony Michel struggling the way that he is, I don’t the Pats can kill the Chiefs on the ground the way they did last year in the AFC championship game.  So if the Chiefs get their 25 that requires a struggling Patriots offense to put up 35 for us to lose our teaser.  I don’t see it.

The Vikings at home with Mike Zimmer are one of the most consistent plays on the board.  David Blough didn’t wow me on Thursday Night Football, and I find hard to imagine he can keep it close in one of the toughest venues to play in in the league.

The Vikings off a SU loss under Zimmer are 24-8-2 (75%) ATS, with an average ATS margin of +4.7.   At home after a loss, they are 15-3 with an average ATS margin of +7.3.