Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Player Props & Picks (9/18/22)

Tom Brady takes on the rival Saints this week. While the injury report is heavy, get your Buccaneers vs. Saints player props, odds, and picks.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Picks

Both of these division rivals picked up a week 1 win, but they each did it in very different fashion; the Bucs cruised to a comfortable win against an overmatched Cowboys team, and the Saints had to spend all 60 minutes scraping away at a surprising Falcons lead. This feels like a slam dunk for Tampa, but their neighbors to the West have had their number for the whole Brady era, and the Superdome is never an easy place to play. Let’s see which players are primed for a big night in this NFC South clash.

Tom Brady o274.5 Passing Yards

I was considering a couple of anti-Brady props for this game, but then I remembered the #1 rule of NFL betting over the past two decades; nobody, not one person, has gotten rich betting against Tom Brady. I’m putting my faith in the greatest of all time to bounce back after a relatively lackluster opening performance against the Cowboys. I actually think that game depressed this number, as it’s way below his per-game number from last year (a league-best 312.7). Even though it came in another Tampa loss during the Saints’ bizarre domination of the Brady Bucs, Tom actually threw for 375 yards in NOLA last season.

There were several factors contributing to a down-week from Tom, volume wise, against the Cowboys. The first of which is the simple fact that he hardly participated in the offseason program, so there was certainly some element of shaking off the rust on Sunday Night. Similarly, this is his first game in Tampa without Bruce Arians as head coach, so there would have been some adjustment there too. Lastly, the Bucs were ahead basically all game- not much was asked of Tom in terms of carrying the team through the air. This seems somewhat less likely in New Orleans, against a team with whom the “Tompa Bay” teams have really struggled.

Alvin Kamara rushing + receiving yards u83.5 (Questionable)

This is a number that at first felt depressed by a somewhat subpar week 1 outing. That being said, I think there’s more to it than that. The Saints will try to come out and establish a strong ground game and take control, but I simply think they’ll fail to do so.

For starters, this Tampa defense is a much better one than the Falcons one Kamara failed to gain traction against in week 1. A year ago, they had the fifth-best scoring defense in the league and the third-best run defense, allowing just 92.5 opponent rushing yards per game. This year, through just one game of course, they’ve largely picked up where they left off, allowing 3 points and 71 rushing yards on opening day. Of course Kamara is a receiving threat too, but the yardage total for a running back is still going to necessarily suffer against a great run defense.

What’s more is the Bucs have specifically done a great job limiting Kamara over the past two years. Although the Saints are 4-0 in the regular season meetings between these teams over that time frame, Kamara has failed to crack the 83.5 total yardage plateau even one time in those games. Kamara is going to have some big games this year, I just don’t see this as one of them.

Jameis Winston u1.5 Passing TD

It does break my heart to bet against Famous Jameis, but I think it has to be done. Last season, before his injury, showcased Winston’s transition to a lower-volume, higher-efficiency passer than he was during his Tampa tenure as his touchdown percentage rose, his interception percentage, total passes attempted, and yards per attempt plummeted, and his passer rating reached completely new highs.

Jameis went over the number of 1.5 touchdowns a week ago, but that was against a far inferior defense, and he still only got to 2 while mounting a furious comeback. The game script is going to be less favorable to passing offense, and the defensive competition is going to be much better. I love Jameis in general this year, but I don’t think this is the game to bet on passing volume for him.