Get TCU Horned Frogs Vs. Georgia Bulldogs player prop picks & odds for the (1/9/23) matchup
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TCU Horned Frogs Vs. Georgia Bulldogs Player Prop Picks
I don’t typically do player prop articles for college football as many legal sports betting markets don’t offer player prop wagering for college sports. However, as more and more states legalize, the number of bettors with access to player props continues to grow.
In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player props to target in the CFB National Championship game between TCU and Georgia. You can find full coverage of this game in my betting picks article and on our YouTube channel. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds on props from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Brock Bowers Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
I’m holding a TCU national championship futures ticket, and my biggest fear surrounding the game involves Brock Bowers. The elite Georgia tight end is a matchup nightmare, particularly with the way TCU’s 3-3-5 defense is constructed.
The strength of the Horned Frogs defense comes from its lights out cornerback room featuring Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton. However, TCU has struggled to face tight ends when they have seen good ones on their schedule.
Much of the Big 12 doesn’t utilize tight ends in their offense, but there were 52 tight ends with over 300 receiving yards in the regular season, and TCU faced five of them.
Texas’s Ja’Tavion Sanders, Oklahoma’s Brayden Willis, Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott, and Kansas’s Mason Fairchild averaged 63.5 receiving yards against them, and they went over their season average by 21 yards in those games.
In the national championship, Michigan’s starting tight end Luke Schoonmaker left the game with an injury, and backup Colston Loveland had four catches for 36 yards in relief.
None of those tight ends are remotely close to Bowers from a talent perspective. Bowers has gone over this yardage count in each of his last two games, and he’s a big play waiting to happen as a pass-catcher.
Fellow tight end Darnell Washington suffered an ankle injury against Ohio State, and while he’s expected to play, he could be a decoy. At the very least, he’ll likely be relied upon more as a blocker than a receiver.
All told, Bowers is arguably the most talented tight end in the country, and while he’s been hit or miss this year, that’s mostly due to the Georgia offense not needing him at all times. However, he has a clear matchup to exploit in the championship gam\e.
Max Duggan Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
When the going gets tough, Max Duggan relies on his legs. And the going will get tough on Monday night against this elite Georgia defense. Duggan has 57 and 110 rushing yards in his last two games, and this number is priced too low.
It’s important to note here that sacks count against your rushing totals in college football, but Duggan has only been sacked twice over his last four games as the experienced TCU offensive line has held strong.
Georgia’s pass rush hasn’t been nearly as good this year as it was last year, and they rank just 94th in sack rate this season. Kirby Smart knew his team had a pass-rushing deficit against Ohio State, and he blitzed C.J. Stroud at a 50% rate.
As a result, Stroud ran for 70 scramble yards, but the four sacks he took totaled 36 lost yards, so his final rushing total was only 34 yards. Georgia may employ a similar blitz-heavy strategy here, but Duggan will have plenty of volume to overcome that.
Duggan had 11 designed runs against Michigan, his most of the season, and I expect a similar approach from the offense, especially with running back Kendre Miller expected to be limited with an injury.
Stetson Bennett Over 0.5 Interceptions (-108 Caesars)
Last week, Stetson Bennett threw an interception against Ohio State, but it was only his seventh on 429 pass attempts this year. However, two of those picks came against Mississippi State this season, the only 3-3-5 defense he’s faced.
TCU’s 3-3-5 defense is different. The defense creates pressures from different angles and various coverage schemes. The team’s talented corners create turnovers due to their willingness to jump on routes downfield and force mistakes.
J.J. McCarthy fell victim to that 3-3-5 defense as he threw two pick-sixes despite only throwing three interceptions on his 288 pass attempts this season. Bennett is much more experienced and poised than McCarthy, but the point stands.
Bud Clark leads the way with five picks this year, and the Horned Frogs have 16 interceptions this year, with four of those coming in their last three games.
Wide receiver Ladd McConkey became a go-to target for Stetson Bennett down the stretch with 53 catches for 674 yards and five scores, but he was hampered by a knee issue down the stretch.
With his top wideout not at 100%, Bennett had two turnover-worthy plays last week, and he will give the TCU defense a chance to make a play on the ball in this game. They’ll have to capitalize to give themselves a chance overall.
Quentin Johnston Over 4.5 Receptions (-150 FanDuel)
A massive part of TCU’s remarkable turnaround this season has been the play of future NFL first-round pick Quentin Johnston. The 6’4″, 215-lb superstar wideout has 59 catches for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns this season, and he torched Michigan with a 6-163-1 line in the Semi Final last week.
I also have major questions about this Georgia secondary. The Bulldogs forced just one incompletion against Ohio State last week, and the team’s cornerbacks struggled mightily. Kelee Ringo, a future first-round pick himself, played very well, however, in holding Marvin Harrison Jr. to just one catch on six targets with Ringo as the nearest defender per PFF.
However, Johnston is a different type of beast with his explosiveness, and he’s a matchup nightmare for Georgia. The Bulldogs run a lot of Cover 3 with three deep safeties and four underneath defenders, which opens up the short to intermediate area of the middle of the field.
Johnston has seen over 20% of his targets in that area, and he will consistently win one-on-one matchups, particularly if Georgia employs a blitz-heavy defense like they did against Ohio State.
This prop is juiced at this point, but I’m fine taking it even at the juiced number. With Georgia looking to take away the explosive, over-the-top passing plays, Johnston will have extra space underneath, and I have him projected for 5+ receptions tonight.