Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills (10/6/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week’s Results: 1-2
All Time Results: 33-25, +7.5 Units

Tennessee Titans -3 (-103) vs. Buffalo Bills -.5 Units

Will Bills starting QB, Josh Allen be cleared from concussion protocol in time to play? Does it matter?

While I do think Allen is an improvement over his backup Matt Barkley, I don’t think he’s necessarily a difference-maker.  Allen is 28th in ESPN‘s QBR and 24th in Yards Per Attempt.

If Allen plays, I think we have a fair bet.  The Bills have had some fortunate “coin-flip” wins against the Jets and the Bengals so far this season, two teams who have not played anybody close since.  Had they lost one or both of those games, I think a 2-2 Bills team would be catching at least 3.5 points against a Titans team that had a higher Wins Total Projection prior to the season.

Adding in a big question mark at starting quarterback for Buffalo and the fair line for this game would be closer to 4 or 5.

tennessee titansIf Allen doesn’t play I think we have a great bet.  Barkley looked terrible in replacement duty against the Patriots. Granted, the Pats defense makes most QBs look that way.  Against a similarily ball-hawking defense, I think the best-case scenario is that the Bills establish a run game and Barkley hardly gets involved.  In 300 career throws, Barkley has 19 picks to only 10 touchdowns.  The Bills do not want the game to hinge on Barkley.  If they get behind, it may have to.

I don’t think the Bills will be able to establish the run and against the Titans strong front seven.  Rookie Bills RB, Devin Singletary is questionable again with a hamstring injury.  One breakout run last week aside, 36-year old Frank Gore doesn’t scare me over the course of  60 minutes.  This Titans team held Nick Chubb and Leonard Fornette in check.  I like the chances they take away the Bills preferred offensive option for the majority of this game.

Titans QB, Marcus Mariotta – like his draftmate Jameis Winston – has come off the chopping block after a rough first couple weeks. He is the only starting QB to not have a turnover on the season.  Mariotta excels when he doesn’t have to play from behind, and the Bills appear unlikely to stretch out to a big lead.  Buffalo has gotten behind in each of their first two road games this season.

Finally, coming off an intense, emotional loss against the Patriots in one of their biggest home games in recent memory, I think there is a strong chance the Bills come out flat here on the road.

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Buffalo Bills Team Total Under 17.5 (-116) – .1 Units

buffalo billsWhether or not Allen is able to go Sunday, I think the Bills adopt a conservative approach.  The Bills defense should able to keep them in the game against a limited Titans offense.  Bills QBs are averaging 2 turnovers per game, a trend that cannot continue if this team hopes to make the playoffs.  The surest way this game gets away from Buffalo earlier is if Barkley or Allen gives the ball away early.  Much like with the Pats last week, three-and-outs are not necessarily a terrible thing in this game for either side.

These Bills only managed 21 points at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.  The Titans defense presents a much stiffer challenge as well as a hostile environment.  Additionally, Buffalo’s offense is the least healthy its been all season.

Miami Dolphins to Win First Overall Pick -125 -.25 Units

miami dolphinsWell, they get better get the first overall pick!  For a team to gut the talent on their roster like this, their better be an institutional mandate that they end up with the worst record in the league and the right to draft Tua Tagovailoa.

Brian Flores – like Todd Bowles with the NY Jets before him – has been put in an incredibly difficult position. He has to at once facilitate a roster overhaul and prove his credentials as a leader of men.  While I expect Washington to fire their coach – when they do, their interim will be highly motivated to earn a couple of wins.  Flores & crew at present have no such motivation.   That is a large part of the reason why the Dolphins are 6-point Dogs at Home in Week 6 against the Dead Skins.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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