Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (9/19/22)

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Search Tool

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Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks

The Titans upset the Bills in primetime last season, and Buffalo will be hungry for revenge in this week’s matchup. Tennessee suffered a letdown in Week 1 with an upset loss to the Giants, but just when you count out Mike Vrabel’s team, they seem to come through with a big performance. There are great opportunities for player prop value in this game, and I will be focusing on that in this article. You can use the Titans vs. Bills player prop search tool below to find the best values in your market.

Robert Woods Under 44.5 Receiving Yards

The early usage for the TItans’ wide receivers was surprising, to say the least. Robert Woods was only on the field for 71% of the Titans’ snaps, and he finished with just one catch for 13 yards on two targets. He ranked just fifth among all Tennessee skill players in total targets despite being their presumed WR1 to start the year.

Rookie Kyle Phillips appears to have earned the trust of the coaching staff as he earned a massive team-leading 42.9% target share (nine targets on 21 routes). Fellow rookie Treylon Burks wasn’t on the field as much, but he had six targets on his 14 snaps and should be on the field much more this week.

With the Titans fully willing to utilize their rookie wide receivers along with their running backs and tight ends in the passing game, there simply aren’t enough targets to go around. I expect Robert Woods to lead the team in snap share again, but a jump of over 30 receiving yards from last week seems unlikely after he only saw two targets.

Dawson Knox Over 31.5 Receiving Yards

Dawson Knox finished with just one catch for five yards last week, but I’m expecting much more involvement from him in this game. Knox played on 50 snaps last week, the second-most on the team, and ran 25 routes, the third-most. Knox was hit-or-miss last season, and he had as many disappearing acts as he did big games.

However, Knox finished with 39.1 receiving yards per game last season, and he went over 31.5 yards in ten out of his 19 games (52.6%). The Titans conceded just 37.7 yards per game to tight ends last year, the fifth-fewest in the NFL, but they ranked just 18th in DVOA against the position in Week 1. Nevertheless, it’s tough to account for Knox in the passing game with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis the primary focus of the secondary.

I want to note that Dawson Knox’s brother Luke passed away just over a month ago and Dawson dedicated this season to him. Of course, that’s much bigger than football, but it’s possible that the Bills make a point of getting him the ball after limited production in Week 1. Let’s bet on a bounce-back for Knox in a primetime game where I’m sure he’ll be highly motivated to produce.

Treylon Burks Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards

Week 1 was very positive for Treylon Burks as he already had two catches of 20+ yards. His YAC production from college seems to have translated to the NFL, and he had 55 yards on just three catches last week. While he only played on 37% of the team’s snaps, he still had 34.1% of the team’s air yards as they used him in a downfield role.

While the Bills’ defense isn’t necessarily one I’m loving a wide receiver play against, I believe Buffalo to be stacking the box against Derrick Henry. All it takes is one play with a slight busted coverage from one of the team’s two starting rookie cornerbacks, and Burks can make a bigtime gain in YAC. I prefer this to his receptions yardage prop overall as it’s tough to know just how much he’ll be on the field moving forward.