Tennessee Titans Vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/17/22)
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Get Tennessee Titans Vs. Green Bay Packers player prop picks & odds for the (11/17/22) Thursday Night Football matchup
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Tennessee Titans Vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
On Thursday night in Week 11, we’ll be watching an intriguing cross-conference matchup between the Titans and Packers. While the spread and over-under certainly carry plenty of intrigue, the player props in this game might offer the most value. In this article, I’ll discuss my favorite player props for this primetime game. You can use the Titans vs. Packers player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and find the best value. Let’s get to work.
Chigoziem Okonkwo Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
What you first need to know about Chigoziem Okonkwo is that he’s a physical specimen. He led all tight ends with a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and blends that speed with a powerful 6’2”, 244-pound frame. At Maryland, Okonkwo broke 14 tackles on 76 catches per PFF and had an absurd 100% contested catch rate. However, he fell in the draft after missing his 2020 collegiate season with Myocarditis.
With that condition now under control, Okonkwo is ready to make his mark on the NFL. Despite only having seven receptions all season, Okonkwo leads all Titans wide receivers and tight ends with 87 yards after the catch. He also joins T.J. Hockenson as one of two tight ends with multiple receptions of 40+ yards this season. He’s already putting that elite athletic profile to good use.
Okonkwo isn’t a full-time player yet, but he has receptions of 48 and 41 yards in his last two games, and he’s starting to work his way onto the field more. Over the past four weeks, he’s played 30% or more of team snaps. He only has eight targets over that span, but given the Titans’ dearth of consistent playmakers in their pass-catching corps, he should be utilized more moving forward.
Most sportsbooks don’t have a prop on Okonkwo available at the time I’m writing this, but DraftKings is offering -115 odds on 10.5 yards. If you can find a higher number at reduced juice, I’d take that angle due to the style of Okonkwo’s play. With his 20.1 per catch average, he’ll likely either have zero yards or go way over this number. I’ll take the chance that it’s the latter.
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 BetMGM)
Despite public perception completely turning against Aaron Rodgers, he’s been fairly consistent this season, and he has 2+ passing touchdowns in seven of his last nine games. The two lone misses were against the Jets’ elite pass defense and in the game against the Lions where he threw multiple interceptions inside the red-zone in a fluky result that likely will never happen to him again.
This week, Rodgers faces the Titans defense ranks below average in pass defense DVOA and yards per pass allowed. 16 of the 18 touchdowns that Tennessee has allowed this season have come through the air (88.9%), which is the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, 17 of the Packers’ 21 touchdowns have been via passing (80.9%), which is also the highest rate in the league.
The quarterbacks that the Titans have allowed to pass for two touchdowns this season include Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, and Carson Wentz, so those numbers aren’t just a product of already having to face Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, perhaps the two best quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers should have no problem getting 2+ passing touchdowns this week.
Christian Watson Longest Reception Over
My final player prop is one that they don’t have odds for at the moment, but I’ll likely be comfortable playing it regardless of where it is priced. You can follow me on Twitter where I’ll provide an update before kickoff as to whether or not I’m officially playing this prop, but for the time being, let’s get into some analysis on Christian Watson.
The Packers’ rookie wide receiver took some time to get on the field consistently, and he’s still rather limited. Watson possesses an elite athletic profile with size, speed, and strength, but he’s incredibly unrefined in terms of ball skills and route running. Nevertheless, Green Bay has found a downfield role in the offense for him, and he’s coming off a breakout game with four catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns.
Watson accounted for a whopping 73.9% of the Packers’ air yards last week, and he was targeted on 42.1% of Rodgers’ passing attempts in the game. The Titans provide an excellent matchup for him as they have allowed a league-high 18 receptions to wide receivers on passes 20+ yards downfield.
Last week, rookie Jalen Virgil had a 66-yard touchdown against the Titans, and that’s been part of a trend. The Titans have allowed a catch of 30+ yards in all but one game this season, and in many of those games, it’s been multiple long catches over that number.
The reason I love Watson’s longest reception prop rather than his total receiving yards is due to questions about the overall passing volume as well as Watson’s drop issue that has plagued him this year. All you need is one long catch against a Tennessee defense that has repeatedly given them up all season.
