Get Tennessee Titans Vs. Houston Texans player prop picks & odds for the (10/30/22) matchup
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Tennessee Titans Vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Picks
We have an intriguing divisional matchup on deck on Sunday between the Titans and Texans, and I’m excited to watch it play out. The AFC South is wide open, and while the Texans don’t quite have playoff aspirations, they have made life very difficult for the Titans in the past. As of Saturday, we know that Ryan Tannehill will be out this week, and rookie quarterback Malik Willis will get his first pro start.
Willis will obviously impact the player props markets, and I will break down the top values on the board in this article. You can use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks for the Titans vs. Texans game. Let’s get to work.
Malik Willis Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-118 Caesars)
Let’s have some fun on Sunday. Malik Willis finished his collegiate career with 1,822 rushing yards over his final two seasons – he averaged 79.2 rushing yards per game over that span. Across a combined 145 NFL snaps across the preseason and regular season, which is about two games worth, Willis has totaled 175 rushing yards.
The Texans can stack the box this week, but with Derrick Henry being one of the best running backs in the NFL, they will devote more defensive resources to slowing him down. Willis should be able to find plenty of open running lanes against the defense that ranks 32nd against the run by DVOA and 29th in terms of yards per carry allowed.
Derrick Henry Alternate Rushing Yards 150+ (+410 FanDuel)
Derrick Henry has victimized plenty of defenses in the NFL, but the Texans have especially struggled to contain him as he’s gone over 200 rushing yards in each of his last three games against their defense. That streak has a great chance to continue this week as Henry will see all the work he can handle in the absence of Ryan Tannehill.
If you need further proof of how poor the Texans run defense is, look at how some recent opponents have performed – Josh Jacobs, Khalil Herbert, and Jonathan Taylor have averaged 153.6 rushing yards against them. Getting +410 value on Henry to hit 150 yards in a game where he could see 30+ carries seems like a massive steal.
Brevin Jordan Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-125 PointsBet)
I don’t quite understand why you can still get a number in the 20s for Brevin Jordan’s receiving yardage. His season high in yardage was five against the Colts in Week 1, and he only has three catches all season. Of course, his multi-week injury was the reason for that, but Davis Mills has established chemistry with O.J. Howard and Jordan Akins in his absence.
Last week, all three of the team’s tight ends played on 40+% of snaps. 13 of Jordan’s 30 snaps were deemed blocking snaps by PFF, and he didn’t have a catch on the four targets he did see. With his career 8.1-yard per catch average, he might need three receptions to hit this number, and I have a hard time seeing that being possible given his usage.