Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Props (10/31/21)

The Titans and Colts meet up in a highly-anticipated divisional rematch with huge playoff implications. The Titans took the first game earlier in the season, but the Colts are riding strong momentum and get to play this game at home. With both of these teams having strong AFC playoff hopes and fringe Super Bowl dreams, this should be a fun one. In this article, I break down the best values among player props for this matchup.

Tennessee Titans Vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Search Tool

Derrick Henry Over 102.5 Rushing Yards

The Chiefs surprisingly kept Derrick Henry in check last week as he finished with just 29 carries for 86 yards despite an excellent game script and a matchup against a poor run defense. However, this week presents a perfect opportunity for a bounce-back game from Henry as he had gone over this number in five straight games before last week and had done so by an average of 42.5 yards per game. The Colts are in the top-12 for both yards per game and yards per carry allowed, but who cares? Facing Derrick Henry is an entirely different test to anything else the NFL has to offer, and Henry has passed this mark in each of his last four meetings with the Colts. Don’t overthink this one.

Michael Pittman Jr. Over 62.5 Receiving Yards

For a second there, it looked like Michael Pittman Jr.’s massive target share could be dwindling. Then, Parris Campbell was placed on Injured Reserve with a foot injury while T.Y. Hilton suffered a neck injury. Hilton returned to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday, but it’s still unclear if he will be able to suit up. In the meantime, Pittman will continue to play on 90+% of snaps and get back to his team-leading 22.3% target share. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans have allowed 79.2 receiving yards to opposing WR1s this season, the tenth-most in the NFL, and their secondary remains injured. This shapes up to be a vital spot for Pittman Jr.

Ryan Tannehill Under 247.5 Passing Yards

This is a massive number, and I don’t quite get it. Ryan Tannehill is a talented quarterback, no disrespect to him. But when you have Derrick Henry on your team, you simply don’t need to throw the ball as much as other quarterbacks. Tannehill averages 248.1 passing yards per game, so this number is right in line with his season average. Still, that number is somewhat inflated by a 347-yard passing effort against the Seahawks as the Titans worked to come back from a significant deficit. Tannehill has never hit this mark in four games against the Colts as the Titans’ starter, and he’s averaging just 186.8 passing yards per game in those appearances.

Nyheim Hines Longest Reception Over 8.5 Yards

The longest reception stat is a Lineups.com team favorite, but we don’t usually look to running backs in that area. However, I see value in betting on Nyheim Hines to break off a long catch at some point in this game. Earlier this season, Hines ripped off a 36-yard catch against Tennessee, and he has surpassed this longest reception line in each of his last four appearances against the Titans. After a few weeks with a diminished role, Hines has averaged an 11% target share over the past two weeks and should see a significant role in this offense once again. He should be able to get over 9 yards on at least one catch reasonably comfortably.