Get Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (12/04/2022) matchup
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Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
In week 13, last year’s #1 seed in the AFC faces the team expected to be this year’s #1 seed in the NFC, as the Tennessee Titans (7-4) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) on Sunday, December 4. The Eagles are five-point favorites in this matchup with an over/under set at 44.5.
This matchup features two of the run-heaviest teams in the league and the best run defense in the league in Tennessee. It also features one of the best pass defenses in the league in Philadelphia (2nd in pass defense DVOA and passing yards allowed per game), and one of the worst in the Titans (17th and 31st). With that in mind, where can we find some value when betting on player props?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Titans vs. Eagles matchup.
Derrick Henry longest rush over 15.5 yards (-120)
With arguably the league’s best running back facing the Eagles’ struggling run defense, we have to get some action on Henry somehow in this game. The question is what is the best prop bet to make on Henry.
Henry’s rushing yards prop line is set at 84.5 yards, which he has surpassed in seven of his last nine games, but only one of his last three as he has gone through a bit of a mini-slump of sorts over the last three weeks (by his standards at least). His rushing attempts prop line is set at 20.5, which he has surpassed in five of his last eight games, but only one of his last four. I could certainly see the over hitting on either of those numbers, with preference going to the rushing attempts number, but his 2.8 yards per carry (on 64 attempts) over the last three weeks is enough of a concern to keep me away.
His receiving props are more appealing – 2.5 receptions (with +145 odds on the over) and 13.5 receiving yards. He has gone over 13.5 receiving yards for three straight weeks and in six of his last nine games, and a potential negative game script plus the Eagles’ strong pass rush leading to dump offs could be a recipe for the over on 2.5 receptions. Two of his three best receiving games this season have come in the last two weeks, which has compensated for his below-average production on the ground. I would feel better about betting on that continuing rather than betting on his rushing props.
However, my favorite prop bet on Henry is the over on his longest rush at 15.5 yards. Henry has at least one rush of 15 or more yards in seven of his 11 games this season. The Eagles have allowed a rush of at least 18 yards in four of the last five games, and three of them have come against bigger, more physical runners with a similar style to Henry (though nobody is truly built like King Henry) – Dameon Pierce, Jonathan Taylor and A.J. Dillon. Even if Henry’s overall numbers on the ground continue the downward trend, this number could still hit – and if he busts the slump for a big game, it will almost certainly hit. This bet is the least influenced by game script and that is part of the reason why it’s the Henry prop I like the most.
A.J. Brown over 74.5 receiving yards (-113)
If we’re looking for action on Henry because of the Eagles’ struggling run defense, then let’s apply the same logic to exploiting the Titans’ struggling pass defense by picking an A.J. Brown prop.
To be clear, the smart money on Brown is probably taking the +100 odds at Caesars on the under at 74.5 receiving yards. After his torrid start to the season, Brown has been surprisingly quiet of late. He is averaging just 43 yards on 3.5 receptions over his last four games. He has gone over 74.5 yards just four times in 11 games and just once in his last seven. With those kinds of numbers, it seems crazy to be getting plus odds on the under, until you consider that the Titans allow the second-most passing yards per game in the league (266.7) and the fourth-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers (184.9).
The Eagles are excellent at exploiting their opponent’s weaknesses and are equally adept at attacking on the ground or through the air. Against the Titans’ stout run defense, they are much more likely to attack through the air. When they do, Brown will get plenty of opportunities to exact revenge on his former team. While nobody will admit it publicly, the revenge factor is surely going to give Brown some extra motivation, and the Eagles will want to give him those opportunities. That narrative is just a small factor influencing this pick. It also makes it just that much more fun as a rooting interest.
Jalen Hurts over 218.5 passing yards (-114)
To go along with the Brown, let’s stack the over on Hurts’ passing yards. I know Hurts’ passing yards have been down over the last three weeks – just 172.6 per game – but he is still averaging 232.7 yards per game for the season. Prior to this three-game stretch, he had gone over 218.5 passing yards in six out of eight games while averaging 255.25 yards per game. This week’s prop line is his lowest line of the season despite the matchup clearly indicating a pass-heavy versus a run-heavy game plan.
The Titans have only held one opposing quarterback under 218.5 passing yards all season – and that was Davis Mills, who has since been benched in favor of journeyman backup Kyle Allen. Hurts and the Eagles should have no problem attacking this defense through the air, and he should soar past 218.5 passing yards this week.