Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10/27/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 9-3-1
All-Time Results: 50-43-1, +9.64 Units

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +125 @ Tennesse Titans -.125 Units

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ Tennesse Titans (-124) – .125 Units

Bruce Arians started his NFL coaching career later than anyone I can remember.  A respected offensive coordinator, Arians inherited a 1-2 team led by rookie Andrew Luck. During their bye week, Chuck Pagano departed the team to undergo treatment for leukemia.

In their first test they hosed an elite Packers team and were 6.5 points, underdogs.  They scored 30, won & kept winning. Arians won Coach of the Year, partnering with Andrew Luck to take a previously 1-15 team all the way into the playoffs.

tampa bay buccaneersIn an industry always looking for the shiny cutting-edge new thing, it was the wisdom and disposition of a man 40-years heavy in the game that suddenly became the hot commodity.  Plucked away by the Arizona Cardinals, Arians lead the franchise to arguably it’s the most successful 5-year period in its 99-year history, winning 61% of his games & making the playoffs twice.

Arians came out of retirement largely to work with Offensive Coordinator Bryan Leftwich.  This week is the game where he proves he made the right decision to coach the Bucs. With 6 wins out of 7 after a bye in his career to date, Arians has a strong chance, in my opinion, to make a statement with a big offensive performance on the road in Tennessee this Sunday. I think we have the better coach.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 @ Tennesse Titans -.1 Units (+195)

tampa bay buccaneersThroughout the NFL, road teams off a bye win 57% ATS since 2000, 60% ATS since the new CBA in 2012 &, 67% ATS since 2017. Over the last 3 years, teams in this spot are covering the spread by over 5 points per game.

Think about it: Travel is only getting easier. After a week of recuperation, the trip makes the team no worse for the wear physically. Additionally, the comradery of rejoining for a collective purpose mitigates any other road disadvantages almost completely. I think we have the better spot.

Jameis Winston has been the source of a ton of ridicule.  Deservedly so.  No one has more turnovers over the last 5 years – nobody is close.  But if all NFL coaches had to do was determine turnover rate, Winston wouldn’t have that record – because he wouldn’t have continued to start over the last 5 years, earning his job back from Ryan Fitzpatrick last year.

Turnover machines like DeShone Kizer & Nathan Peterman don’t remain starters for a reason. Winston brings a lot of ability to the table that counteracts his turnovers. Not fully. Winston is a below-average QB.  But I don’t think he’s as bad as the market currently prices. Ryan Tannehill had decent counting stats against the Chargers, but ESPN‘s QBR rated him at 37 percentile – closer to what I think he is: a borderline starter.  Winston may be a borderline starter as well, but I think he is a couple of spots better ~ 40th percentile maybe.  I think we have the slightly better quarterback.

The Titans HFA doesn’t scare me – and I think the 2.5 point spread essentially makes the claim that we have even teams here.  I disagree. I think we have slight edges at the most important positions in the sport HC & QB.  Additionally, I think road teams off a bye as well have a natural advantage.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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