Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the Tennessee Titans Vs. Washington Commanders matchup on (10/9/22).
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Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Picks
This week, the Titans and Commanders face off as two teams fighting for playoff hopes in their respective conferences. After a rough start to the year, the Titans have won two straight games and are very much in play in a wide open AFC South. Meanwhile, the Commanders can still make their way into a Wild Card spot in a fairly open NFC. This article will focus on player props in this week’s game, and you can use the player prop search tool above to find the best value available. Let’s get to work.
Antonio Gibson Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
So far this season, Antonio Gibson has only averaged 43.3 rushing yards per game, which is just under this set player prop line. While Tennessee’s pass defense has had its issues, they rank eighth in the NFL in rushing defense DVOA and third in rushing success rate allowed. The Commanders have suffered numerous injuries along their offensive line, and they rank 26th in the NFL in adjusted line yards this year.
To make things tougher for Gibson, Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to make his season debut this week. Robinson had tons of preseason hype before an unfortunate incident in which he was shot in an attempted carjacking. “We’re pretty fired up,” Ron Rivera said about Robinson’s activity in practice.
Rivera seems to love Robinson as a player, and with Gibson’s past ball security issues, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him cede touches to Robinson right away. With the potential for lower volume than he’s seen so far behind a struggling offensive line and against a solid run defense, this appears to be a sell spot for Gibson.
Curtis Samuel Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
The Commanders gave Terry McLaurin a huge extension over the offseason and drafted Jahan Dotson in the first round, but Curtis Samuel has surprisingly been their WR1 this year. Samuel is averaging 6.5 receptions for 54.8 receiving yards per game this season, and he leads the team with a 21.5% target share. With Jahan Dotson out this week, expect that target share to be even higher than normal.
The Titans have a solid passing defense overall, but one area where they have been highly susceptible is in the slot. Rookie Roger McCreary has started in the slot in each of the last two weeks, and he’s allowed 11 catches for 95 yards over that span. Just under 70% of Samuel’s snaps have come out of the slot this year, and he’ll take full advantage of McCreary’s coverage deficiencies this week.
Robert Woods Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
I’ll be fully honest – this is far from my favorite player prop of the week. I’m not totally sure what to make of the Titans’ passing game, and I believe Derrick Henry’s rushing props are well priced. However, Woods seems to be building better chemistry with Ryan Tannehill, and he has the luxury of facing the Commanders’ secondary this week.
Washington has played man coverage at a 31.9% rate this season, the 11th-highest in the NFL, and that plays into Woods’ favor as a route-running technician. Woods had four catches for 85 yards a couple of weeks ago against a Raiders defense that plays man coverage at a 34% rate this year. With Treylon Burks out this week, look for Woods to have a productive afternoon.