Texas A&M Vs. Miami: Prediction, Best Bet, Odds (9/9/23)

Texas A&M vs. Miami kicks off this Saturday at 3:30pm EST in Florida as a home game for the Hurricanes. Texas A&M is currently a -4.5 favorite and -190 on the moneyline while the total is set at 51.5. Read on for more Texas A&M vs. Miami best bets and predictions as this shapes up to be a defensive slugfest.

Texas A&M Vs. Miami Prediction & Best Bet

After a slow scoring barn burner last year, this game serves as a revenge spot for the Hurricanes as they lost to the Aggies 9-17. It was anything but pretty as both offenses were as anemic as it gets as they struggled to consistently move the ball down the field.

After underwhelming 2022 performances, both teams made some changes in an attempt to boost their offensive production this year. The Aggies brought in new OC Bobby Petrino in an effort to jump start their offense while the Hurricanes let go of Josh Gattis and named Shannon Dawson their new OC.

With new offensive coordinators comes new offensive identities and both teams have struggled out of the gate with implementing them. While both units secured easy wins against inferior competition, the offensive production was hardly anything to boast about. Especially through the air as Miami ranks league average in Off Pass Success Rate and the Aggies a lowly 109th.

Until the pass game can catch up to speed with the new wrinkles in the system, both units will need to rely on their ground game. Both did an excellent job at finding rush success, yet at a very slow pace as there was no resemblance of any explosiveness from either team.

Expecting both teams to rely on their ground game heading into this one, an under is in play. Expect small chunks at a time with a strong chance of a stalled-out drive or a measly field goal as both near the red zone. With little to no explosiveness, we can rest assured that the potential for fluke scores is minimal. Expect another ugly one this time around in the highly anticipated rematch.

Texas A&M Vs. Miami Prediction & Best Bet: Under 51.5

Texas A&M Vs. Miami Odds

Even in a revenge spot, oddsmakers still lean towards Texas A&M as they opened the Aggies as a -4 favorite. Bettors have also leaned towards their favor, backing Texas A&M up to -4.5 in some shops. With both offenses going through changes and have yet to face a stout defense, it’s anyone’s guess at who adapts to their system quicker in an effort to pull out the win. 

As for the total, oddsmakers expect this rematch to feature an abundance of points as they opened the number at 49.5. Bettors are in the same belief hammering the over up to as high as 51.5 as of writing. A curious line movement as a heavy dose of the run is expected, as well as minimal explosive plays and defenses capable of slowing each other’s down field progression. While I liked the under on the open, I may add some should this number continue to rise as we near kick off.

Texas A&M Vs. Miami Key Matchups

Can the Aggies secondary disrupt the efficiency of Tyler Van Dyke? How does Miami’s defensive line handle the Aggies size?

Tyler Van Dyke vs Aggies Secondary

While the downfield pass attack certainly took a back seat for the Hurricanes, their quarterback Tyler Van Dyke actually had himself a very efficient game. He finished the contest throwing for 201 yards and one touchdown while completing 17 out of 22 attempts.

Tyler Van Dyke | #ItsAllAboutTheU® pic.twitter.com/bulfepwIfU

— GO ‘CANES! (@83_87_89_91_01) September 3, 2023

He did have one interception and the lack of explosiveness is a real issue against a stout Aggies defense. Texas A&M ranks top-10 in Def Pass Success Rate and Def Pass PPA. With little to no explosiveness, the Aggies secondary can creep up to take away the middle of the field as well as get a jump start at defending the run.

Battle of the Trenches

One of Miami’s biggest weaknesses last year was their lack of defensive line production. Letting opposing offensive lines push them back and generate little to no backfield pressure.

While their improvement has remained to be seen this year, it will be vital to improve their stuff rate against a run heavy Aggies offense. By plugging the gaps with their line, the Hurricanes can keep their linebackers in the second level for added coverage against Van Dyke’s short throws.

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