Thunder-Pacers Game 1 & Series Odds, Picks, Predictions: Record-Setting NBA Finals Upset?
Hardly any bettors could make the case for a matchup between the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder against the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals at the beginning of the postseason. On one hand, Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who won the MVP award after pacing the league in scoring, has continued to light up opponents on the big stage. Conversely, Tyrese Haliburton (18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game) has helped compile a pair of impressive upsets. Let’s examine the latest Thunder-Pacers odds to assess where Haliburton and Co. would rank in NBA betting history if they produce a third straight.
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Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals Odds: To Win Series
| Teams | Series Odds |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -700 |
| Indiana Pacers | +500 |
Thunder-Pacers Odds: Series Spread
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thunder (-2.5 Games) | -130 |
| Pacers (+2.5 Games) | +100 (EV) |
Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Will Indiana Make Finals Betting History?
According to the database below (via Sports Odds History), the Pacers showcase the seventh-biggest odds (+500) of winning the NBA Finals over the last 41 years, tied with the 2004 Detroit Pistons and the 1986 Houston Rockets. Detroit represents the only team to derail a favorite of -600 odds or higher in the Finals during that span.
Larry Brown’s bunch delivered upon its already promising outlook entering the regular season, falling to the then-New Jersey Nets in the conference finals the year prior. Although Indiana arrived at the same pinnacle last season, the betting market wasn’t inclined to buy into its long-term success.
With a preseason win total of 46.5, the Pacers are tied for the seventh-lowest win total for any team to make the championship round since the 2001-02 campaign. Their preseason Finals odds (66-1) reflect this unprecedented journey.
In fact, Indiana is one of seven franchises to reach the NBA Finals by upsetting their opponents in the conference semifinals and finals. Only the 1995 Hakeem Olajuwon-led Rockets won the title, cashing in as +130 underdogs against Shaquille O’Neal and the Magic.
Largest NBA Finals Underdogs Since 1985
| Year | Teams | Series Odds | Opponent | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Philadelphia 76ers | +1600 | Los Angeles Lakers | Lakers (5 Games) |
| 2018 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +688 | Golden State Warriors | Warriors (Sweep) |
| 1996 | Seattle SuperSonics | +650 | Chicago Bulls | Bulls (6 Games) |
| 1999 | New York Knicks | +600 | San Antonio Spurs | Spurs (5 Games) |
| 2002 | New Jersey Nets | +550 | Los Angeles Lakers | Lakers (Sweep) |
| 2000 | Indiana Pacers | +550 | Los Angeles Lakers | Lakers (6 Games) |
| 1986 | Houston Rockets | +500 | Boston Celtics | Celtics (6 Games) |
| 2004 | Detroit Pistons | +500 | Los Angeles Lakers | Pistons (5 Games) |
| 2025 | Indiana Pacers | +500 | Oklahoma City Thunder | TBD |
Evaluating Pacers’ Betting Odds
Indiana’s magical run may continue if it sustains its gaudy offensive output, but both teams’ full-season ratings suggest a different prognosis.
In the regular season, Oklahoma City had the fourth-best adjusted offensive efficiency (118.5) and the top-ranked adjusted defensive rating (106.7). On the flip side, the Pacers were ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.4) and 16th in adjusted defensive rating (113.8).
Indiana’s kryptonite surfaced in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals, with New York‘s half-court pressure generating 20 turnovers. The Knicks failed to recreate this defensive tenacity throughout the series, yet the Thunder can do so nightly.
Their 10.6 steals per 100 possessions in postseason play would stand alone as the highest opponents’ turnover rate for a team that advanced beyond the first round over the last 26 seasons. Oklahoma City has tallied 235 points on their 172 possessions immediately after a steal, equivalent to an astronomical rate of 136.6 points per 100 possessions. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, and Cason Wallace can all wear down Haliburton and fellow Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard.
Even though Indiana’s transition defense has held up to this point, allowing a playoff-best 0.96 points per transition possession (via Synergy), none of its previous foes resemble a historically great unit like Oklahoma City. Granted, the market is priced as such.
Thunder-Pacers Odds: NBA Finals MVP
Bet On These Longshot NBA Finals Odds?
In league history, only 10 players have taken home the hardwood for regular-season MVP and Finals MVP: LeBron James (2012-13), Tim Duncan (2003), Shaquille O’Neal (2000), Hakeem Olajuwon (1994), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, and 1998), Magic Johnson (1987), Larry Bird (1984, 1986), Moses Malone (1983), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971) and Willis Reed (1970).
That said, Gilgeous-Alexander could make history. He is heavily favored to become the first to win regular-season MVP, Western Conference finals MVP, and NBA Finals MVP.
Meanwhile, Haliburton boasts the second-best odds of winning the award, lined at . For bettors unfazed by the Thunder’s defensive prowess, I’d prefer Haliburton’s odds of winning the Finals MVP over the Pacers to take the series. There’s always a case for an unsung hero to impede Haliburton or any star on an upset-minded team, given the likely variance involved. Still, the best player is generally the recipient.
Recent examples are Kawhi Leonard (Raptors, 2019), Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks, 2011), Dwayne Wade (Heat, 2006), and, to a lesser extent, Chauncey Billups (Pistons, 2004).
Regardless of how you bet on the NBA Finals, good luck with your wagers for Thunder-Pacers odds!
How To Watch NBA Finals
Date: Series begins June 5, 2025
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET (Game 1)
TV Channel: ABC
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