Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals Game 4 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will OKC Overcome Historic ATS Skid?
Another game, another comeback. In Game 3, the Pacers trailed by five points entering the fourth quarter before outscoring the Thunder, 32-18, to take a 2-1 series lead. Indiana is the first team to lead an NBA Finals after three contests despite failing to possess a double-digit lead since the 1978 Seattle SuperSonics. Oklahoma City also finds itself on the wrong side of history from a betting perspective. Let’s investigate how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. have struggled against the spread (ATS) with respect to Thunder-Pacers Game 4 odds.
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Thunder-Pacers Game 4 Odds: NBA Finals Spread, Moneyline, Total
Thunder-Pacers Series Odds: To Win NBA Finals
| To Win | BetMGM Sportsbook | Fanatics Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder | -250 | -235 |
| Pacers | +200 | +195 |
Thunder-Pacers Series Odds: Total Games
| Total Games | BetMGM Sportsbook | Fanatics Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 | +110 | +100 (EV) |
| Under 6.5 | -130 | -125 |
NBA Finals MVP Odds: SGA Favored Over Haliburton
Will Thunder ‘Rebound’ In Game 4?
Per the odds board above, Oklahoma City is a road favorite in Game 4 after closing -5.5 in Game 3. Although the market expects the Thunder to bounce back, they haven’t been kind to bettors on the road, going 0-8 ATS in the NBA playoffs. It’s the worst stretch for any team away from home over the last 40 years.
How will Gilgeous-Alexander and his teammates respond? OKC’s historically great defense has garnered plenty of praise, but Indiana’s unit stole the show, allowing just one field goal in the final 5:57 of Game 3. Conversely, Alex Caruso, one of the Thunder’s primary defensive pests, finished with the game-worst minus-15 on the night.
Moreover, OKC produced its worst assist-turnover ratio (16:19) in 2024-25, only the second time this season it had fewer assists than turnovers in a single matchup.
Granted, the zig-zag theory has been extremely profitable in these NBA playoffs, correlating with the market’s respect for the Thunder. If you’re unfamiliar with this strategy, it’s exactly what it sounds like. Bettors will wager against what happened in the previous game of a series, with the notion that the losing team will win (and cover the spread) in the subsequent contest.
Teams in these spots have delivered a 42-22-1 ATS mark (65.6%) in the 2025 postseason. If the Thunder are to extend this profitable trend, they must stymie Tyrese Haliburton in transition. The playoff star tallied 22 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds in Game 3, which shortened his odds of winning the NBA Finals MVP to .
Entering the series, Haliburton was lined at +750 to take home the award. These odds weren’t surprising, considering Indiana was priced as a record-setting NBA Finals underdog.
NBA Finals Are Far From Over
When the NBA Finals have been noted at one apiece, the Game 3 victor has won the title 80.5% of the time. To boot, according to Who Wins, teams to go up 2-1 after starting on the road in the NBA Finals are 12-6 (66.7%) straight up.
Nevertheless, the Thunder are still favorites to win it all. By converting these odds to implied probability, Oklahoma City has a 68.8% chance of overcoming a 2-1 series deficit. In recent memory, the following teams have managed to accomplish this feat.
- 2022 Warriors (vs. Celtics)
- 2015 Warriors (vs. Cavaliers)
- 2013 Heat (vs. Spurs)
- 2011 Mavericks (vs. Heat)
Shortly after this series concludes, the draft will take center stage. Check out the latest NBA mock draft odds for the top-10 selections.
How To Watch Thunder At Pacers: NBA Finals Game 4
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