Thunder-Timberwolves Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Game 1 ATS Trend Continue?
For a second consecutive season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have advanced to the Western Conference finals. This year, they’ll face Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, which trounced the Denver Nuggets in Sunday’s Game 7. This series tips off on Tuesday night, which historically hasn’t been a profitable turnaround for teams that were pushed to the brink. Let’s examine this against-the-spread (ATS) trend and handicap the odds for the Thunder vs. Timberwolves.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Series Total Games
| O/U 5.5 Games | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 5.5 | -140 |
| Under 5.5 | +110 |
Correct Series Score
| Team/Series Score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thunder 4-0 | +475 |
| Thunder 4-1 | +260 |
| Thunder 4-2 | +380 |
| Thunder 4-3 | +400 |
| Timberwolves 4-0 | +2500 |
| Timberwolves 4-1 | +1700 |
| Timberwolves 4-2 | +700 |
| Timberwolves 4-3 | +900 |
Best Odds To Win Western Conference Finals
Evaluating Game 1 ATS Trend
Since the 2004 NBA playoffs, there have been 51 instances of teams coming off a Game 7 versus opponents that avoided going the distance in their previous series. As expected, many of those squads have failed to meet the moment in Game 1, tallying a 19-31-1 ATS (38.0%) mark.
Let’s dig even further. After parsing through the last 37 years of postseason play, there have been 92 occasions in which a team played Game 1 of a series after taking part in a seven-game brawl. In these opening tilts, the team coming off a seven-game series is 35-57 straight up, cashing in at the same success rate as the trend above.
Additionally, 31 of the 92 teams in this spot have been outscored by double figures. The well-rested Timberwolves, which haven’t played since Wednesday after disposing of the Steph Curry-less Warriors in five games, are underdogs in Game 1. History indicates that Minnesota is not only a valuable bet to cover the spread but also to win outright. Anthony Edwards and Co. are on the moneyline.
However, trends are only valuable until the market catches up. For all but one of Oklahoma City’s home games versus Denver during the semis, it closed right around a 10-point favorite. Given the current 2.5-point spread differential, has the market upgraded the Timberwolves enough?
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Betting On No. 1 Seed Thunder vs. No. 6 Seed Timberwolves Odds
For one, Cleaning The Glass gives Minnesota an elite rating throughout the postseason. It ranks fourth in Efficiency Differential (+7.5) while surrendering the second-fewest points per 100 possessions (108.2). Granted, the Timberwolves took down the overvalued Lakers and banged-up Warriors.
Oklahoma City and Minnesota split their four meetings ahead of the playoffs. While OKC finished the regular season with the league’s premier net rating, the Wolves ranked fourth in that category. Moreover, they’re 30-6 SU in the last 36 games that star forward Julius Randle has suited up, equivalent to a 68-win pace.
Nevertheless, the goal of handicapping Game 1 and the series price is to identify whether the Thunder-Timberwolves odds have been adjusted too far or not enough. Bet on numbers, not on teams.
Perhaps Minnesota will exploit OKC’s tired legs in Game 1, like the abovementioned trends support. Still, I believe the market is overvaluing the Timberwolves in Game 1. In fact, for my money, the Thunder are somewhat undervalued among the odds to reach the NBA finals.
For reference, they were -800 favorites to advance past Denver. After going 2-5 ATS in the conference semifinals, their price tag may not accurately reflect their true power rating.
Alternatively, I would consider betting on OKC to win this series by two games or more, which is currently lined at -160 at Fanatics Sportsbook.
NBA Finals Betting Odds
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