Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (11/16/23)

The Oklahoma City Thunder battle the Golden State Warriors this Thursday (11/16/23). Get Thunder vs. Warriors player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors Player Prop Search Tool

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors Player Prop Picks

Which players will thrive in the Thunder vs. Warriors matchup?

Chris Paul Over 9.5 Assists (-130 DK)

Paul is 3rd in the NBA at 15.9 potential assists per game despite ranking 40th in touches per game. His court vision and passing IQ remain elite, and his patience is perfect for Golden State’s motion offense. Paul will see a massive increase in touches here because Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are both out. Those two are Golden State’s top two facilitators outside of Paul, and the Warriors lack another primary handler to dominate on-ball touches. Therefore, look for the Point God to control possessions and rack up 18-20 potential assists. 

Although Curry is sidelined, Golden State can still scrape together enough offense to turn those potential assists into actual assists. Their plethora of three-point shooters, including Klay Thompson, face a Thunder defense that ranks 29th defending catch-and-shoot threes in terms of opponent shot quality and are allowing them at the 6th highest frequency (per ShotQuality). Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, and Kevon Looney should all score as cutters too. 

Overall, Paul’s playmaking volume will be colossal, and Golden State’s offense still has enough shooters to capitalize. He needs to reach 10 assists roughly 56 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 3PM (-130 DK)

Because Golden State’s perimeter defenders struggle to stay in front of drivers, they will be frequently forced to collapse against Oklahoma City, who leads the NBA in drives per game. There should be plenty of kick-outs as a result, and Isaiah Joe can take advantage of the chaos. 

The sharpshooter produced a 40.9 3PT% on 5.4 attempts per game last year, and he currently sits at a 41 3PT% on 5.5 attempts – talk about consistency. He’s made two threes in 7 of his last 8 games and faces a Golden State defense that ranks 26th defending off screen shots (per ShotQuality). It’s worth noting that Joe has hit two threes in all five career games versus Golden State while on the Thunder. 

Joe must accomplish this feat roughly 56 percent of the time. 

Chet Holmgren First Field Goal (+650 BMGM) & Jalen Williams First Basket (+850 FD)

Holmgren is favored to win the tip-off over Looney. Holmgren and Williams have combined to take Oklahoma City’s first field goal attempt in 8 of 11 games so far. Golden State has given up the 7th most points per game to opposing centers, and Holmgren’s range and scoring bag will be an issue for Kevon Looney. On the other hand, Andrew Wiggins is a quality defender and subsequent tough matchup for Williams. However, data is king in the first basket prop, so following it when the matchup doesn’t seem ideal but the odds are too long is typically a wise course to pursue. 

Holmgren must score the first field goal roughly 13 percent of the time, while Williams sits at 10 percent. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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