Titans Vs. Packers (11/17/22) Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay + SGP Picks
We’re onto Week 11 of the NFL season, and this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Titans and Packers provides plenty of intrigue. When these teams last played, it was a 40-14 win for Green Bay at Lambeau, but Davante Adams caught three touchdowns in that game, and he’s no longer with the team.
In this article, I’ll discuss the best options for a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for this Thursday Night Football game. SGPs provide you with an excellent opportunity to combine multiple wagers for a much bigger payout than you would otherwise receive. As always, correlation is king and we’re looking to maximize value. Let’s get to work.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay
How can we not include Derrick Henry in this SGP? This game has it all. Temperatures are expected below freezing, and there’s a chance we see some snow on Thursday. It won’t be as much as we’re getting in the Bills Browns game later this week, but still. The Titans will lean even more on their All-Pro running back, and this is an excellent matchup for him.
The Packers are allowing 122.8 rushing yards per game to running backs, the third-most in the NFL. The Titans run the ball at the second-highest rate on first downs, and Green Bay is allowing 4.91 yards per carry to running backs on first down carries. The Packers also rank 30th in run defense DVOA and run defense success rate allowed.
All that is to say Derrick Henry should have a great game this week. You can keep things simple and play his base rushing yardage prop at 102.5 for -113 odds on FanDuel, but life is too short for simplicity. Let’s grab his alternate rushing prop at 150+ yards for +370 odds.
While Green Bay can load the box all they want, slowing down Henry will be tough without All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell in the lineup. Of course, we’ll also take Henry’s touchdown prop at -150 odds. While I wouldn’t typically advise playing a touchdown prop at that number, I love including it in our SGP.
Now, let’s get some Packers props in the mix. Sadly, FanDuel doesn’t currently have Green Bay’s wide receivers listed on the site, but I love this matchup for both Christian Watson and Allen Lazard. If those are posted when you’re reading this and you want to include them in your SGP, feel free. Also, check out my player props article for a play I love on Watson.
However, I will be taking Aaron Rodgers over 243.5 passing yards. Rodgers has only hit this number in one of his last four games, but the Titans are much better against the run than they are the pass, and Rodgers will need to throw the ball in this game. Christian Watson’s emergence and Allen Lazard’s return to health are immensely helpful.
Tennessee is allowing 272.6 passing yards per game, the second most in the NFL, and they rank 18th in yards per pass allowed. The Titans have faced the second-most pass attempts per game as opponents know to throw on them rather than run, and I expect Rodgers’ total attempts to significantly increase from the last game when he only threw the ball 20 times.
Finally, I’m taking the over here. While the trends suggest the under would be the play, I get the feeling that we’ll be seeing some points scored in this game. Aaron Rodgers is a mismatch for the Titans’ poor pass defense while Derrick Henry will present problems for the Packers’ run defense, and that could make for a higher-scoring game than many are expecting.
Put it all together, and we have an exciting SGP for the Thursday Night Football game:
- Derrick Henry 150+ Rushing Yards (+370)
- Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)
- Aaron Rodgers Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Over 41 Total Match Points (-110)
Full SGP Odds: +1275 ($10 wins $127.55)
/22)
