2020-21 Tour Championship Odds Coverage + Favorite Bets

By Tanner McGrath | Sep 01, 2021, 2:54pm

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2020-21 Tour Championship Odds

Welcome to the 2021 Tour Championship! East Lake Golf Club in sunny Atlanta, GA is the site of the event, and it’s expected to be a dramatic finish to the 2020-21 PGA Tour Season.

As the current FedEx Cup points leader, Patrick Cantlay will get the best-staggered start position at 10-under par. It gives Cantlay a two-stroke advantage over the field, as Tony Finau sits at eight-under, and Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Cameron Smith are all at five-under or better.

It’s going to be an entertaining tournament either way, but why not make it more interesting by making some top-value golf plays. Let’s dig into the odds and best bets for the 2021 Tour Championship.

The Favorites

John Rahm (): The World No. 1 overall has been on a hot streak since withdrawing from the Memorial. He snagged a U.S. Open victory, finished third in his next two events, and most recently posted a top 10 finish at the BMW Championship.

We know what Rahm does well: He’s an elite ball-striker who leads the Tour this season in strokes gained off-the-tee, from tee-to-green, and in total. His 71.99% greens-in-regulation ranks second among all golfers, and it’s the key reason he’s posted the best scoring average in the world this year (69.388).

He’s also very outspoken, and has publicly mentioned his key strategy in the FedEx Cup playoffs is patience. Essentially, don’t burn yourself out, keep yourself in the points race, and strike at the right time.

Now is the right time, and he looks poised to make a run in this event. Rahm’s a solid bet, but it’s a questionable one given such short odds.

Patrick Cantlay (): It’s intriguing Cantlay isn’t the favorite to win this event, given his two-stroke lead over the field, his four-stroke lead over the betting favorite, and the BMW Championship trophy he earned last week. However, while he’s posted two recent victories, Cantlay can be streaky.

To match his three total tour victories and five total top five finishes, he’s missed five cuts in his last 15 events. In-between his wins at the Memorial and the BMW Championship, Cantlay finished:

T15 at the U.S. Open
T13 at the Travelers Championship
CUT at The Open Championship
T23 at the St. Jude Invitational
T11 at The Northern Trust

His win last weekend jumped his world ranking to fourth, but he was outside the top 10 prior to that. So, it’s natural to question whether he deserves to be a top favorite to win this event outright. I’m going to pass on Cantlay at 4-to-1.

Best Bets and Top Value Plays

Tony Finau Outright (): Finau is a guy I think about betting week in and week out. He has such a high ceiling and has the overall game to compete with anyone in the world.

After finally capturing his second Tour win at the Memorial, I’m thinking his confidence has never been higher. He followed it up with a mediocre T15 finish at the BMW Championship, but he also posted a final round 63 in the process. I’m hopeful Finau can ride that momentum into this week’s middle rounds.

Tony Finau o. Patrick Cantlay +170: Following my above analysis, I’m concluding Finau’s momentum combined with Cantlay’s inconsistency provides some value on the former.

Finau does have a two-stroke disadvantage, and Cantlay has had the edge on him over the course of the year, but I think there’s some serious potential for Finau to win this event while Cantlay flops. And, given the big plus-money odds, it’s worth shooting a dart on.

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 (): Last year, Scheffler put up a four round total of 268, which was second lowest in the field.

This year, Scheffler enters the Tour Championship having posted five top 10s in his last nine events, with three of those events coming in Majors (T8 at PGA Championship, T8 at U.S. Open, T8 at The Open Championship).

It’s fair to say Scheffler is a big time player that isn’t scared of the shining lights. Plus, he’s been good this year at bouncing back from tough results, like when he followed two straight missed cuts, at The American Express and Farmers Open, with a T7 at The Phoenix Open.

He enters this tournament having posted a 14th place finish at the St. Jude Invitational and a T43 at The Northern Trust. In my opinion, this is a perfect situation for a bounce-back performance from a guy who’s performed in this event before.

I love Scheffler Top 10 at this price, and would even consider Top 5 at .

Tanner McGrath

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.