Get Travis Kelce player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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Travis Kelce Player Prop Picks
While Patrick Mahomes is obviously the headline grabber for the Chiefs, and rightfully so, Travis Kelce is one of the best offensive players in the NFL in his own right. Kelce is an elite playoff performer, and predictably, his player props have been some of the most popular as we lead up to Super Bowl LVII where he’ll face his brother’s Eagles.
In this article, I’ll break down the top Kelce player props available in the market. Check out the rest of the site and the YouTube channel for tons of player prop content. Also, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and make sure you’re getting the best value available.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
Touchdowns, touchdowns, and more touchdowns. That’s what we’ve come to expect from Travis Kelce, especially in the postseason. He has at least one touchdown in each of his last five playoff games and 11 of his last 14 playoff games. Over those 14 games, he has scored 15 times.
This season, Kelce led the NFL with 28 red zone targets and ranked second with 16 targets inside the ten-yard line. Through the Chiefs’ two playoff games, he has six targets inside the ten-yard line and three touchdowns. He also led all Chiefs skill players with 12 touchdowns in the regular season.
The Eagles ranked 11th in red zone touchdown rate allowed in the regular season, but part of that was due to their easy schedule. When facing top ten opponents by red zone scoring rate, Philly allowed a 61% rate. The Chiefs ranked second in red zone scoring rate, and defending Kelce in that area is much easier said than done.
The Verdict: Bet Yes and Sprinkle on First Touchdown and 2+ Touchdowns
Travis Kelce Over/Under 77.5 Receiving Yards
Kelce has been dominant through the Chiefs’ two playoff games, totaling 21 catches for 176 yards and three touchdowns despite evidently picking up some sort of a back injury. Whatever the injury is, it hasn’t hampered his production in the postseason to this point.
In the Super Bowl, Kelce faces an Eagles defense that ranked sixth in DVOA against tight ends in the regular season. Of course, they didn’t face a tight end like Kelce, and PFF graded the Eagles as the 20th-ranked defense against tight ends. If they play zone coverage like they’re prone to, Kelce will eat in this game.
When the Chiefs and Eagles met in 2021, Kelce was held to four catches for 23 yards. However, that had more to do with Tyreek Hill going absolutely nuclear with 11 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Kelce is now the #1 receiver in the offense, and we can expect elite production from him in the Super Bowl.
The Verdict: Lean Over 77.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
I hate the juice that you’re seeing at some sportsbooks for receptions props in Super Bowl LVII, and Travis Kelce is no exception. The best price on him over 6.5 receptions is currently -160 at DraftKings, and most sportsbooks have pushed up to 7.5 receptions. In this type of a market, every incremental increase matters a ton.
Kelce has 7+ catches in each of his two playoff games and in nine of his 19 games overall this season. He has at least six catches in six straight games and 7+ in four of those six. The volume will be there as Kelce will be the top target in a game that’s expected to be a down-to-the-wire shootout.
All that said, I can’t possibly recommend a play on a prop that has, at best, -160 juice. If you want to combine this with other plays in a Same Game Parlay, that’s a fine approach, and I don’t even hate playing over 7.5 receptions at plus money.
The Verdict: Lean Over 6.5 Receptions
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