It seems the first two picks are locked up, with Trevor Lawrence heading to Jacksonville and the Jets taking Zach Wilson. At least the odds indicate those will be the picks, but the rest of the quarterbacks continue to rotate odds. San Francisco trading up to three has created a very interesting situation. Mac Jones continues to float around as to who the 49ers might grab, which means they would be passing on Trey Lance and Justin Fields? That might not exactly be the case, but with a week left before the draft, there will be teams looking to land these quarterbacks.
What Do The Odds Say?
Looking at DraftKings Sportsbook, there are a few props and specials that include possible Trey Lance destinations. Starting with the third overall pick, as of 4/21, Trey Lance is +350 to be the third overall, which is San Francisco’s pick. However, Mac Jones jumped up to -150 and Justin Fields at +160. I still believe Jones or Fields is going to be the pick for the 49ers here.
Next is that Lance is -110 to go within the first five picks. This is interesting because if the 49ers do not take him, this leaves the Falcons or a trade-up team. If the 49ers end up taking Jones, it also pushes Lance back if other teams rate Fields higher. Trey Lance is -143 to go under 6.5, which makes sense with the Dolphins likely trading back again to a team that could use this pick on Lance. The odds are +115 to have Lance over the 6th pick.
Trey Lance Draft Special
There is an overall list of odds for Trey Lance, which gives a complete look at odds for all teams. The Broncos have been the team in line to take Lance from a draft position perspective and also the fact they need a quarterback. Denver leads at +200 to take Lance. There are trade-up options available, and the possibility of Lance falling to Denver is also an option. As mentioned above, San Francisco is +350, and then New England is +400. The Patriots are pretty unpredictable for what they could do. Clearly, they are in need of a quarterback, but them landing Lance will require a trade-up. Atlanta also remains at +500 if they decided to use the pick on a quarterback.
After those teams, you start to look at Washington, Carolina, and Chicago. The Panthers trading for Sam Darnold doesn’t exactly take them out of the running, but those odds slipped to +1100, and I believe they are more inclined to take a non-QB with the pick. Washington at +800 is a very intriguing team because they can trade up and take a quarterback for the future. Lance would also take a seat under Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year, which bodes well if he is viewed as more of a raw prospect. Chicago at +1200 is a longshot. The Bears are a mess right now and have plenty of needs but finding a potential franchise quarterback is still in play. You also have the Lions at +1200 and Saints at +1600, which I don’t see happening.