UFC 295 Main Card Best Bets: Expert Picks & Predictions For Lopes vs Sabatini, Andrade vs Dern, & More
The UFC 295 main card continues with fights between Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini, Matt Frevola and Benoit Saint-Denis, as well as Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern. Read on for best bets for each of these fights along with relevant UFC 295 odds and UFC 295 predictions.
UFC 295 Main Card Best Bets
While the top of the card has seen a chance with Jon Jones bowing out due to injury, the rest of the main card has been set in stone with three incredible fights in store. Submission artist Diego Lopes battles it out against Pat Sabatini who is more than capable of holding his own on the ground while Matt Frevola looks to trade blows against Benoit Saint-Denis. Following the two exciting opening fights is a women’s clash between Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern, giving us a fun appetizer before a pair of championship main events. For a breakdown of the two title fights to cap off the night, you can read a breakdown here.
Diego Lopes Vs. Pat Sabatini Prediction
If you like high level grappling, then this opening fight is for you. Both fighters are jiu-jitsu black belts, both flashing elite grappling and submission abilities in their short stints with the UFC. Factor in a tight moneyline and this fight has all the makings for a very close contest.
With that being said, the value resides on Sabatini as he boasts a more well-rounded game against Lopes which may be all he needs to get the edge on the scorecards. He throws nearly the same number of Significant Strikes per Minute yet absorbs SS at a far less amount with a far superior stand-up defense.
Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini open the main card tomorrow night 🔥#UFC295
— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) November 10, 2023
Where this gets interesting is when it hits the mats as that will be in both fighters’ game plan. Lopes has yet to secure a takedown, opting into the more traditional style of being on his back to set up his submissions. That plays right into Sabatini as he has no issue with securing takedowns as well as using his top control to set up his transitions and submission attempts.
Knowing Lopes wants to be on his back vs Sabatini’s tendency to being on top, we may see a more defensive minded Sabatini on the mat which plays towards the fight going the distance. Expect a prolonged grapple minded approach as Sabatini plays towards the judges favor with top control while being more than capable of fighting against Diego’s submission attempts.
Pick: Fight Goes the Distance
Matt Frevola Vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction
Very few exemplify the saying “boom or bust’ more than Matt Frevola as he patiently waits to land the big shot against his opponent. This comes with dire consequences as he absorbs contact and throws far lesser volume yet possesses enough power to drastically alter the trajectory of the fight with one powerful throw.
That makes for an intriguing clash against Benoit Saint-Denis who is the complete opposite in terms of striking. Benoit is a hyper paced style of fighter who wants to trade strikes with both his hands and feet from the opening bell. Especially with weakening the opposing legs, throwing leg kicks at a high rate in order to slow them down and opt into a takedown.
When on the ground, Benoit Saint-Denis has a big edge as Frevola will struggle on his back with Benoit using brute force to hold him down to the judges favor. Matt has little to no submission ability off his back, making it tough to transition out from under in order to get back on their feet.
Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis ML
Jessica Andrade Vs. Mackenzie Dern Prediction
After a three-fight losing streak, Jessica Andrade finds herself as an underdog to the exciting Mackenzie Dern. Don’t let the sizable dog price fool you, Jessica Andrade is still in top form and more than capable of making Dern uncomfortable.
While Dern uses her hyper speed fighting style to her advantage in terms of controlling the pace, she will be prone to counter strikes as Andrade is a capable striker in her own right. The numbers echo that sentiment as Dern absorbs more SS per Minute at an average of 5.34.
#UFC295 fight week rolls on! 💥 Former champ 🇧🇷 Jessica Andrade aims to get back on track when she faces BJJ sensation Mackenzie Dern this Saturday.
— Women’s MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) November 7, 2023
Worse yet for Dern, she will be at a disadvantage should she get staggered by a counter and this fight hits the ground. She leaves herself exposed through transitions as a submission artist that Andrade can take advantage of with powerful ground strikes. These strikes will continue to add damage to Dern, making her more vulnerable when they get back to their feet.
Andrade may be on a losing skid, but she has more than enough tools at her disposal in order to generate the upset. Expect her to hold her own on her feet as well as having an advantage when on the mat which gives enough of an edge for a small bet on her moneyline.
Pick: Jessica Andrade ML