UFC Best Bets Today (6/24/23): Expert Predictions for Emmett vs Topuria

While most major sports are in the midst of an offseason, the UFC will be giving us an event every weekend for our viewing pleasure for the foreseeable future. This gives us MMA fans something to lean on until the return of football season, spending our late Saturday nights watching the carnage unfold in the octagon while also potentially making a few bucks in the process.

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Topuria Best Bets

Last weekend’s Fight Night was a painful one for our bankroll as the co-main event looked to go our way before a sudden shot led to a finish and the main event was poorly read from the start. That’s in the past and now we have another exciting batch of fights on deck for our betting pleasure as the UFC heads to Jacksonville. Prepare for some carnage early in your day as the prelims kick off at 11:30am ET.

Josh Emmett Vs. Ilia Topuria

After losing against Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284, Josh Emmett makes his return to the octagon to take on the undefeated Ilia Topuria. A bit of a head scratching move as Emmett puts himself at risk of catapulting down the featherweight rankings with a loss to the much younger and explosive Topuria but could strike gold should he be able to generate the major upset victory.

As for Topuria, it’s been as good a start as he could ask for as he is a perfect 13-0 and has major advantages over the older Emmett. While Emmett is no slouch himself at 18-3, his grappling and strike defense will be in question as Topuria will look to ramp up the intensity from the opening bell.

Ilia Topuria weathering the storm and coming back for a KO victory 🔥. pic.twitter.com/h5O2CT3TLq

— El Champ Champ (@ElChampChampMMA) June 24, 2023

While both fighters are nearly identical in the Significant Strike Defense Accuracy, Emmett absorbs nearly two more Significant Strikes per minute. A startling metric against his favor as the much older fighter, especially when coupled with the idea that keeping this fight on their fight is in his best interests.

The contrast of grappling ability is a large one as Topuria brings a BJJ black belt pedigree and is hyper aggressive in his efforts of gaining control when on the mat. He doubles Emmett in Average Takedowns per contest and will look to take advantage of his weak defense as Emmett only stuffs takedowns at a 58% rate.

Simply put, Emmett will be in constant danger of getting taken down as Topuria will look to apply pressure on their feet before picking apart an exposed angle as Emmett tries to defend his onslaught.

With Topuria being too heavy a favorite for my liking, as well as the fight to end inside the distance prop, I took my betting interests elsewhere in an effort to cut through the juice. That led me to betting Topuria to win in rounds 1/2/3, backing the idea of him applying the pressure from the rip and winning in dominant fashion. I may also sprinkle Topuria to win by submission as I expect this fight to hit the mat early due to Emmett’s poor takedown defense.

Pick: Ilia Topuria to win in rounds 1/2/3

Main Card Parlay

With so many exciting matchups on deck, I decided to couple my main event bet with two other betting angles for a little parlay entertainment. Expect thrilling fights from start to finish as this parlay includes the opening main card bout and both headliners.

The opening bout of Brendan Allen vs Bruno Silva presents a battle of stylistic differences that may result in a quick finish as they have major advantages over each other. Allen will look to take Silva down early and rapid fire off submission attempts while Silva looks to apply pressure when on their feet. Both have a history of quick finishes and I expect that trend to continue should one be able to apply their advantage over the other early in the contest.

As for the co-main event, both Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber mirror each other’s striking numbers as they are nearly identical in Significant Strikes per minute and Significant Strikes Absorbed per minute. This may make Ribas uncomfortable, forcing her to rely on her superior grappling skills and avoiding further danger while on their feet. Should we avoid a submission finish, then this creates a beneficial time-consuming situation as we patiently count down the clock for this leg to cash.

Pick: Topuria wins in rounds 1/2/3 + Ribas vs Barber goes the distance + Allen vs Silva u2.5 rounds