The July 22nd UFC main event starts at 3:00 PM EST with a showdown between Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura in the men’s heavyweight division. Aspinall is currently favored at -475 odds on the moneyline with a 5.5 point spread at -400 odds.
The Co-main event for the Saturday night card is a battle in the women’s flyweight dividion between Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko. Read on for UFC predications and best bets for the July 22nd card along with relevant betting analysis.
UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Best Bets
While my heart aches at the result of another McKinney loss, it was nice to start off with a win as that fight cruised to the under. That was until I was dead wrong about the Holly Holm fight as Holm looked like a shell of her former self. Slow, groggy, just seemingly looking dead in the water until Silva finished her off with a standing guillotine. We now set our sights on a card that seems lackluster on paper, yet expect fireworks in the double header as both fights will feature elite carnage.
Tom Aspinall Vs. Marcin Tybura
The story of Tom Aspinall is a heartbreaking one. Once being deemed as a legitimate threat to the Heavyweight title, all came crashing to a devastating end as Aspinall suffered a serious knee injury during his last fight. That shelfed him for what will be a little over a year, now making his return as a sizable favorite against the veteran Marcin Tybura.
His return comes as a bit of a surprise as he was expected to be out until at least 2024 but it’s good to see the once great Heavyweight get back on track with a potential massive victory in his return. This is anything but a set up for Aspinall as Tybura is a serious threat to get the upset victory as he has all the tools to limit the damage and pick apart his opponents for a long-term decisive victory.
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Because of Tybura’s fighting style, it actually plays friendly towards Aspinall’s mindset as he will most likely start out slow as he puts pressure on his knee with his quick movements. Aspinall has a tendency to press on from the opening bell, moving forward with lateral steps as he unloads his striking on a back pedaling foe.
Should Aspinall take a more cautious approach and keep the fight in the middle, then this opens the door for Tybura to bleed the clock with takedown opportunities. The beauty for Aspinall is that Tybura will most likely look to waste time with stalled out grappling then actually look to cause any more damage while on the ground.
As the fight goes on, we should see more shades of vintage Aspinall as he will make Tybura uncomfortable with his pressure in his striking. Given that he may start slow early on, I am combining his moneyline odds with the over half a round in an effort to bring down the juice. I may also make a second play with the over of 1.5 as well.
Pick: SGP Tom Aspinall ML + Over 0.5 Rounds
Molly McCann Vs. Julija Stoliarenko
When it seemed like Meatball Molly was being built as the next big thing in the women’s division, she suffered a devastating loss to the superior Blanchfield. Seemingly bursting the momentum bubble that she was building, now having question marks loom over her as an actual viable MMA product.
That was until McCann reminded everyone that she is one of the most devastating strikers in the women’s division, finishing her last fight with an incredible spinning backfist. She now finds herself in another striking friendly matchup as Julija Stoliarenko rounds out as more of a grappler instead of a striker.
What benefits us is that Stoliarenko isn’t just a wrestling type of grappler, she will look to exploit McCann’s major weakness in the submission department by rifling off submission attempts from the get-go. McCann is very much susceptible to getting taken down early due to her relentless striking mindset, possessing a lowly Takedown Defense Percentage of 44%.
As for who will win? That’s very tough for me to say. On one hand, McCann is the far superior striker and will look to ramp up the pressure on Julija in an effort to avoid a clean takedown with her back pressed against the cage. Should McCann slip up and get taken down to the mat, then she is in serious trouble as well due to her weak submission defense.
With that said, I am drinking the juice and taking this fight not to go the distance with hopes of either finishing the fight the way they intend to.
Pick: Fight To Go The Distance – No