23): Luque vs Dos Anjos, Rountree Jr Vs. Daukaus, & More

By Kody Malstrom | Aug 12, 2023, 5:24am

The August 12th UFC main event starts at 7:00 PM EST with a fight in the men’s welterweight division between Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos. Current UFC odds have Dos Anjos slated as a -118 favorite on the moneyline with a 5.5 point spread set at +140 odds. Read on for more UFC predictions and best bets today.

UFC Fight Night Luque vs Dos Anjos Best Bets

This Saturday’s Fight Night is headlined by the veteran Rafael dos Anjos who is battling it out against Vicente Luque in what will put the victor one step closer for a welterweight title shot. We also get another chance to bank on Terrance McKinney as he makes a quick turnaround to get back on track after his disappointing fight from a few weeks ago.

Vicente Luque Vs. Rafael dos Anjos

At 38 years old, it’s safe to say that this is Rafael dos Anjos last real run at the title. A future hall of famer who is still able to go the distance against the best of them, getting the opportunity to catapult up the rankings in what could be a statement win for the Brazilian.

Rafael dos Anjos has seen it all. pic.twitter.com/C28dZltJL0

— MMA On Point (@OnPointMMA) August 11, 2023

I bashed on the last card for being headlined by a heavy dose of stalled out wrestling, but this main event may serve differently as RDA uses his wrestling to carry out his onslaught of damage. Constantly looking to pick apart limbs and soften them up with his ground and pound.

Knowing that his opponent has the size and reach advantage, we may see Dos Anjos get aggressive in getting this to the ground early. He has a major advantage in this department and would fare better in avoiding Luque’s knockout power. Dos Anjos averages over two successful takedowns per fight, a sharp contrast to Luque’s 0.51.

I audibly groan at the thought of finishing the card off with another heavy dose of wrestling, but at least make money on it as Dos Anjos racks up points on the judges’ scorecards with his ground control time.

Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos ML

Khalil Rountree Jr Vs. Chris Daukaus

While I was vocal about how I dislike backing fighters who move up in weight, I have the complete opposite sentiment for fighters moving down in weight. Chris Daukaus fits that mold as he moves down to light heavyweight after three consecutive KO/TKO losses in the heavyweight division.

The issue this time around is that I’m not sure Khalil Rountree serves as a favorable matchup as his first fight in the division. Betting markets agree, pegging Rountree as the favorite heading into this battle.

Daukaus has a knack to get into pressure standup situations, bringing in heavy variance as a flash KO can happen at a moment’s notice. Even with a massive grappling advantage, Daukaus has shown little interest to take this to the mat and will look to trade blows against the powerful striker.

This will be a big bodied collision from start to finish, bringing in too many wild outcomes for me to take a stand on either fighter. I will look to tie in their “fight to not go the distance” prop into a parlay in an effort to cut through the juice.

Pick: Fight does not go the distance parlay piece

Terrance McKinney Vs. Mike Breeden

It was a disappointing, and a controversial, result for McKinney’s last outing as his opponent refused to let go of the cage after numerous warnings. This allowed him to keep position, eventually finishing it to our betting benefit. While I hate to see it end that way, a win is a win at the end of the day.

Ok I lost but how many times do you get to put your fingers in the cage for leverage? The ref ain’t suppose to just swat your hand away they’re suppose to warn you and then stand you up if you do it again. He did it the first round too

The same ref that didn’t give me my… pic.twitter.com/RQ9ddAZBcf

— Terrance McKinney (@twrecks155) July 16, 2023

Even though McKinney is trending in the wrong direction, he has managed to keep in good form due to being a crowd favorite. He now gets a very favorable opportunity as a massive betting favorite against the struggling Mike Breeden.

While Breeden serves as a capable stand-up fighter, he mightily struggles in the grappling department. A major edge for McKinney who has made it vocal that he is putting an emphasis in his training to round out as a grappler and submission artist, now getting a chance to put that on display.

With that said, hunting for a takedown and submission opportunity may burn time off the clock. This creates an opportunity to cut through the heavy juice on McKinney’s moneyline, getting to tie in the over of 0.5 a round to bring this down to -125 in a same game parlay.

Pick: Terrance McKinney ML + o0.5 Rounds SGP

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.