Victor Wembanyama’s Injury Alters Defensive Player Of The Year Odds

By Braxton Reynolds | Feb 20, 2025, 2:53pm

According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Victor Wembanyama will miss the remainder of the season due to a deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. He was averaging 24.3 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.8 blocks per game entering the break. Fortunately, the superstar is expected to fully recover from the condition.

San Antonio’s playoff hopes are shattered with Wembanayma sidelined, so the 2025 draft now becomes their post-All-Star-break focus. They currently own the 10th-worst record in the league, which gives them a 13.9% chance at winning a top-four pick. Portland, Philadelphia, and Chicago have a decent chance of finishing with a better record. If those three teams all leap the Spurs, then that would give San Antonio a 34.4% chance at a top-four pick.

In addition to lottery odds, Wembanyama’s DVT diagnosis also drastically impacts the Defensive Player of the Year race. He was previously the massive betting favorite and essentially a lock in the minds of voters, but Wembanyama is now ineligible to win the award because he will not reach the 65-game threshold. That’s enormous for bettors who placed a wager on anyone except Wembanyama to win DPOY at 11-1 odds — a line that was active on bet365 until Charania’s report.

Victor Wembanyama’s injury alters Defensive Player of the Year race

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley both sat around 30-to-1 to claim the award before the news. They have now plummeted to -110 and +130 odds, respectively, on DraftKings. Dyson Daniels (+1200), Luguentz Dort (+1800), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+3500) round out the top five for DraftKings.

Team success is a key factor for voters. Over the past 15 seasons, every winner hailed from a team that finished in the top five in defensive rating. In fact, 11 of the 15 winners came from a top-two defense.

Memphis and Cleveland currently rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in defensive rating, so Jackson and Mobley would be bucking this recent trend. Who else can challenge them, though? Daniels’ Hawks are merely average defensively, and it’s rare for a guard to win the award. Oklahoma City features a historically dominant defense, but the Thunder are riddled with All-Defensive candidates to the point where it’s nearly impossible to single out one player for DPOY.

Overall, Wembanyama’s injury completely changed the landscape for both San Antonio’s playoff dreams and the Defensive Player of the Year award.

Braxton Reynolds

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.