Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (9/14/23)
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Get Vikings vs. Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (9/14/23) matchup, including player analysis for Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson, and Justin Jefferson.
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Vikings vs. Eagles Player Prop Picks
The Eagles host the Vikings in a week 2 primetime matchup for the second consecutive season, with this year’s game being on Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime. With some big names like Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson playing in this game, there are plenty of opportunities to bet on NFL player props.
Let’s take a look at some of the betting odds on player prop bets and pick the best Vikings vs. Eagles player prop bets for this week 2 matchup.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (+125 at BetMGM)
Dallas Goedert had an unusually quiet game in week 1 at New England, catching 0 passes while being targeted only 1 time. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is already on the record that he wants to get Goedert more involved in week 2, and he has a track record of being true to his word when he makes statements like that.
Nick Sirianni explaining the involvement of Dallas Goedert in Game 1. His exclusive postgame interview with Mike Quick coming up @NBCPhiladelphia pic.twitter.com/x8qjAhNXiU
— rob kuestner (@rkuestnernbc10) September 11, 2023
In week 1 last season, wide receiver DeVonta Smith also had an uncharacteristically quiet game, with 0 catches on just 4 targets. Sirianni made a point of getting Smith involved in week 2, and he caught all 7 of his targets in that game against these same Vikings. Expect a similar storyline to play out in this game with Goedert registering at least 5 catches.
Goedert had at least 5 catches in 9 of the 13 games he played with Jalen Hurts last season, including all 3 playoff games (he missed 5 games and played 2 games with backup QB Gardner Minshew). The Eagles’ talented tight end never went back-to-back games with Jalen Hurts under center where he failed to record at least 5 catches and at least 6 targets.
When the Eagles played the Vikings last season, Goedert had 5 catches on 6 targets for 82 yards. He is a very good bet to have at least 5 catches again this time around, and with that level of volume he should also be a good bet to go over 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM).
It’s worth nothing that as of this writing, Goedert’s receptions prop line was set at 3.5 catches with -160 odds, but it was available previously at a line of 4.5 with +125 odds at BetMGM. We like this bet at either line, but obviously we like it a lot more at +125. If the over 4.5 at plus odds is not available again, then the over on 41.5 yards at -115 would also be a great play.
Vikings vs. Eagles Player Prop Staff Analysis (VIDEO)
The Lineups.com NFL crew got together to give their favorite picks for player prop bets in this Vikings vs. Eagles matchup.
T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 catches (-150 at BetMGM)
We are doubling down on the tight ends playing a big role in this game and taking the over on T.J. Hockenson’s receptions prop line to go along with the above bet on Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles’ defense is vulnerable over the middle of the field where Hockenson likes to work. In week 1, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones threw more than half his passes (28/54) over the middle and completed 78.5% of them, according to Pro Football Focus. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki combined for 8 catches on 9 targets for 92 yards in that game.
Defending tight ends has been a long-term problem for the Eagles because their organizational philosophy deprioritizes linebackers and safeties, which are the positions that typically match up with tight ends. Both starting linebackers and both starting safeties from last year’s Super Bowl team left in free agency and were replaced either by second-year players (Nakobe Dean and Reed Blankenship) or cheap veterans (Zach Cunningham, Justin Evans and Terrell Edmunds). Dean is missing this game with a foot injury, while Blankenship is also on the injury report.
That sets up very well for Hockenson to feast over the middle in this game and rack up the receptions. After being traded from the Lions to the Vikings last season, Hockenson had at least 5 catches in 8 of his 11 games, and he had 8 catches on 9 targets in week 1 this season.
When these teams played last year, Vikings tight ends Irv Smith Jr. and Johnny Mundt combined for 7 catches on 11 targets for 64 yards. Hockenson is a far more talented player than either of those guys, and he should have no problem hitting the over on his receptions prop line in this game.
Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+115 at BetMGM)
This pick is more of a narrative pick than a logical pick, although betting on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown almost always makes good logical sense.
In this game last year, Jefferson had one of the worst games of his season, finishing with just 6 catches for 48 yards. He had 0 catches on 6 targets when he was guarded by Darius Slay and Slay intercepted two of those passes.
Slay is an extremely talented cornerback and one of the best in the league at his position, but we do not expect him to be able to repeat that level of performance. What we do expect is that Jefferson will have a little extra motivation to have a big game after his poor outing last season. That’s the narrative we’re betting on.
Look for the Vikings to move Jefferson around to get him into more favorable matchups, including using him in the slot to exploit the weak middle of the Eagles’ defense. The Eagles are also expected to be without their other starting cornerback, James Bradberry, who suffered a concussion in week 1. Second-year undrafted player Josh Jobe will take his place, and Jefferson could have some opportunities to go 1-on-1 against Jobe.
Regardless of who is guarding him, we expect Jefferson to have a much better game this time around than he did the last time these teams played. If that happens, the +115 odds on an anytime touchdown will represent a solid value.
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