Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (11/8/23)

The Golden State Warriors take on the Denver Nuggets this Wednesday (11/8/23). Get Warriors vs. Nuggets player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks

Which players can crush their player props in the Warriors vs. Nuggets matchup?

Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-125 Caesars)

Jamal Murray missed Denver’s last game, and Nikola Jokic proceeded to dish out 12 assists and an astonishing 22 potential assists. He’s one of the best playmakers basketball has ever seen, so it’s a given that Jokic will rack up assists when dominating touches. 

Murray remains out here, and Jokic faces a Golden State defense that has surrendered the second most assists per game to opposing centers. “Big Honey” will tear apart the undersized Kevon Looney around the basket, so the Warriors must double and face the consequences. As a result, Jokic should kick it out to open shooters all night. Caldwell-Pope, Porter Jr, and Strawther are excellent three-point snipers that can capitalize. Aaron Gordon in the dunker’s spot should thrive against a Warriors defense that plays below the rim too. 

There are also a few factors in Jokic’s favor. Draymond Green is out, so Golden State loses their best defender and assist-stopper. The game isn’t projected to be a blowout, thus granting Jokic ample minutes to collect assists. Finally, the matchup is in Denver, and shooters tend to be more efficient at home – especially role players. 

For the bet to have a positive expected value, Jokic must notch ten assists about 56 percent of the time. 

Nikola Jokic First Basket (+450 FD)

Jokic is favored to win the tip-off against Looney, so it’s likely that Denver takes the first shot. Golden State allowed centers to score first at one of the largest rates in the NBA last year, and it remains a weakness for them. The Warriors have surrendered the most field goal attempts in the paint (non restricted area) per game, and Jokic ranks third across the league in these field goal attempts per game. He will be able to consistently back Looney down and score via a layup or post up. 

Jokic led Denver in Team First FGA Percentage last season, and he’s taken their first field goal attempt in four of eight games this season. Matchup meets volume here. He needs to score first about 18 percent of the time based on his odds. 

Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 Rebounds (-128 FD)

The Warriors are 21st in opponent offensive rebound percentage and allowing the third most rebounds to power forwards at 11.75 per game. Aaron Gordon’s explosiveness and positioning near the basket will put him in an excellent spot to collect rebounds, especially since the Warriors cannot match his aerial athleticism. With Draymond out, Golden State will morph from small-ball into micro-ball, which behooves Gordon’s rebounding outlook. 

This matchup isn’t expected to be a blowout too, and Gordon has breached seven rebounds in all five games where he saw at least 33 minutes. He needs to hit the over about 56 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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