Get Commanders Vs. Bears player prop picks & odds for the (10/13/22) matchup.
Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Search Tool
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Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Picks
It’s certainly not a Super Bowl preview on Thursday night, but as always, that doesn’t mean we can’t find great value in the betting market on the game between the Commanders and Bears. Make sure to check out our matchup preview article for analysis on the spread and over/under in the game. This article will focus on player props, and you can use the Commanders vs. Bears player prop search tool above to find the best value in your market. Let’s dive in.
Curtis Samuel Over 5.5 Receptions (+150 PointsBet)
We’re going back to the well with Curtis Samuel after he cashed for us last week, and I’m excited about his opportunity here. As was the case in Week 5, the Commanders’ targets should be rather consolidated between Sameul and Terry McLaurin with Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas out again this week.
The Bears’ defense has seen the highest rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage in the NFL, and the Commanders have heavily utilized Samuel in the short area of the field with a 4.5aDOT. While Chicago’s pass rush hasn’t consistently gotten home this season, the Commanders will likely continue to scheme easy production for Carson Wentz in the short area of the field.
Samuel has averaged 6.4 catches per game this season, and he’s gone over this listed number of 5.5 receptions in four of his five games. If you want to play it safe and take the juice with the 4.5 receptions at a different book, feel free. However, I love getting +150 value at PointsBet given the circumstances.
Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114 BetRivers)
Believe it or not, the Bears are going to have to throw the ball on Thursday night. While Washington has struggled across the board this year, the one thing they do quite well is stop the run. The Commanders rank 6th in defensive DVOA against the run and 29th against the pass. They rank 5th in rushing EPA and 26th in passing EPA on defense.
Enter Darnell Mooney. The Bears wideout has steadily become more involved in the offense with 5+ targets in each of his last three games, and he has a 23.9% target share for the season now. If you drafted him early in fantasy, you haven’t been enthused with his lack of production, but he’s averaging 56.3 receiving yards per game over the last three weeks.
Betting on a Justin Fields receiver might seem nerve wracking, but Fields has 20+ passing attempts in each of the last two games, and he could have a season-high in passing attempts this week as his over/under is set at 23.5. Mooney is the clear top target for the Bears, and I like betting on him to have a solid game. Don’t be afraid to use him in DFS lineups, as well.
Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220 FanDuel)
Let’s have a little fun on Thursday night. After being shot over the offseason, Brian Robinson Jr. made his highly anticipated return last week and immediately saw nine carries to just three for Antonio Gibson. The offseason momentum for Robinson becoming the team’s leading back doesn’t seem to have gone anywhere.
The Bears have allowed 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game this season, the fifth-most in the NFL, and they rank 22nd in EPA/run allowed this year. At 6’1”, 225 lbs, Robinson was drafted to be a bruising back for the Commanders, and he’ll likely be the go-to guy in the red zone for them in short order. Don’t play more than a half unit on this, but it would be very fun to see him score on Thursday and the value is there.