Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)

Get Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans player prop picks & odds for the (11/20/2022) matchup

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Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Picks

After handing the Eagles their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football, the Washington Commanders (5-5) travel on a short week to visit the Houston Texans (1-7-1). These teams are both in bottom seven in the league in total offense, while the Commanders’ 10th-ranked defense holds a significant edge over the Texans’ 30th-ranked unit.

Owners of the worst record in the league through 10 weeks, the Texans are 3-point home underdogs and the over/under in this matchup is 40.5, one of the lowest on the week 11 slate. Where can we find some value in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair?

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Commanders vs. Texans matchup.

Brian Robinson Jr. over 63.5 rushing yards (-115)

Since returning from the horrific gun shot incident he suffered during the preseason, Robinson Jr. has been steadily getting more snaps and touches in the Commanders’ offense. He has led the Commanders’ backfield in touches in five of the six games in which he’s played and he’s led them in snap share three times. Last week against the Eagles he logged season highs in snap share (52%) and touches (26) as the Commanders’ exploited the Eagles’ struggling run defense to control the time of possession and keep the Eagles’ offense off the field.

Now they face a Texans’ defense that is not only the worst run defense in the league, but on a historically bad pace to be one of the worst defenses ever. They are allowing an outrageous 181.8 rushing yards per game, 21 yards more than the next worst team. The worst run defense in the last 20 years was the 2008 Detroit Lions that went 0-16. They allowed 172.1 yards per game, 9.7 fewer than the Texans are currently allowing.

It should not be surprising, therefore, that the Texans have allowed the opposing team’s leading rusher to hit the over on their rushing yards prop line in every single game this season. On average, the opposing runner has cleared their prop line by 55.8 yards. Robinson has cleared his number in four out of five games. I do not expect any of those trends to change this week. Hammer the over, and consider betting on Robinson to register his first career 100-yard rushing game (odds not available at the time of writing).

Dameon Pierce under 79.5 rushing yards (-115)

In the other backfield, as impressive as Pierce has been in his rookie season, I don’t like this matchup for him this week. He has done most of his damage this year by feasting on below average run defenses. The Commanders have a top-12 run defense in terms of yards per game and yards per carry allowed, and they ranked 2nd in run defense DVOA.

In the six games in which Pierce has rushed for 80 or more yards, five of them have come against teams in the bottom 10 in run defense DVOA (Giants, Raiders, Bears, Eagles, Chargers). When he has faced stronger run defenses like the Titans and Broncos, he has averaged just 52 yards rushing. (I am ignoring week 1, when he had only 20 snaps as the Texans inexplicably favored Rex Burkhead before coming to their senses). I expect the Commanders’ stout defensive front to be able to slow down Pierce, and if it’s a low-scoring game as expected, I don’t expect Pierce to get the volume he would need to hit the over.

A related note: the Texans just added running back Eno Benjamin this week, claiming him off waivers from the Arizona Cardinals. However, he is not expected to play this week. I do not think this news is in any way an indictment on Pierce – it’s simply a young, rebuilding team adding a talented piece to its backfield. That move did not factor into this pick. If Benjamin unexpectedly does suit up, it would likely be on a very limited snap count, but it certainly would not help the chances of Pierce hitting the over.

Terry McLaurin over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)

McLaurin has been McSoarin since Taylor Heinicke took over as the Commanders’ QB. In his four games with Heinicke under center, McLaurin is averaging nine targets, six catches and 92.5 receiving yards per game and he has gone over his receiving yards prop line in three of those four games. In his previous six games, he was averaging 6.1 targets, 3.7 catches and 61.2 receiving yards. So even before he started ramping up his production with Heinicke, McLaurin was averaging more yards than this week’s prop line.

McLaurin has clearly developed a good chemistry with Heinicke, as evidenced by his 29.7% target share over the last four weeks. He is 7th in the league in targets over that timeframe. The Texans are better against the pass than against the run (it would be hard to be worse!), but they are still average at best. They are allowing 6.7 net yards per pass attempt (26th in the league) and rank 25th in pass defense DVOA. Even if this ends up being a low-scoring game, I like McLaurin’s chances to get enough targets to hit the over on 59.5 receiving yards.