Get Washington Commanders Vs. Indianapolis Colts player prop picks & odds for the (10/30/22) matchup
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Washington Commanders Vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks
The Colts are shaking things up at quarterback, and Sam Ehlinger is expected to start not just this week, but for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, the Commanders also have their backup quarterback starting as Taylor Heinecke has taken over for the injured Carson Wentz. Despite the presence of backup quarterbacks, we can find plenty of value in the player props market, and I’ll break down the best spots here. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best odds for the Commanders vs. Colts game.
Jonathan Taylor Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-109 BetRivers)
Jonathan Taylor made his return to the lineup last week, but he wasn’t fully healthy. With another full week of practice behind him, he should be able to take on a full workload on Sunday. He’s had over 20 carries in each of the three games he’s played in full this season, and he’s averaged 24 attempts over those contests.
With Sam Ehlinger starting at quarterback, and Frank Reich perhaps not the instigator of that decision, I expect the Colts to lean on their ground game. They won’t be particularly effective behind a poor offensive line and against the Commanders’ fourth-ranked run defense by DVOA, but Reich likely won’t trust Ehlinger to throw the ball nearly as much as Ryan was over the last few games.
Sam Ehlinger Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-137 Caesars)
If there’s one area where Sam Ehlinger can find some success this week, it would be with running the ball. Ehlinger had 1,907 career collegiate rushing yards over four seasons. Over 137 preseason snaps, Ehlinger ran 17 times for 126 yards and a touchdown. That’s roughly two full games of NFL action, so that would put him around 63 rushing yards.
Of course, we can’t fully translate college and preseason statistics to the NFL, but I believe a line of 21.5 rushing yards is too low. The Commanders haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks this year, but they allowed Justin Fields to run for 88 yards a couple of weeks ago. With Ehlinger under constant fire against the NFL’s fifth-best team in pressure rate, he will likely be scrambling quite a bit.
Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
It’s been a rocky season for Terry McLaurin, but he’s averaging 62.9 receiving yards per game, and he had 73 yards last week despite what I perceived to be a difficult matchup against the Packers’ former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. McLaurin saw eight targets, his highest since Week 3, as Heinecke locked in on him often.
McLaurin has averaged 63.2 receiving yards per game in his career with Heinecke under center, and he has gone over 58.5 yards in each of his last three games with Heinecke. The Colts also provide a favorable matchup for McLaurin as they rank 29th in DVOA against WR1s this season, surrendering 61.4 yards per game to the position.