Washington Commanders Vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (11/14/22)

Get Washington Commanders Vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (11/14/22) matchup

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Washington Commanders Vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks

Capping off a great week of football on Monday night is a divisional rematch between the Commanders and Eagles. This game carries plenty of intrigue as the Eagles remain undefeated while the Commanders are fighting tooth and nail for a Wild Card berth in the NFC.

In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player props from this Monday Night Football game. You can use the Commanders vs. Eagles player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks in your area. Let’s get to work.

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

Much to the chagrin of many fantasy football managers, Brian Robinson has more rushing attempts than Antonio Gibson in every game since making his debut. Over that span, despite Gibson playing slightly more snaps, Robinson is averaging 13.4 rushing attempts per game while Gibson is at 7.2 per game, much lower than his 13.3 per game average over the first four weeks.

The Commanders have been running the ball about 32 times per game over the last three weeks, which is significantly up from their 26.6 attempts per game over the course of the full season. With Taylor Heinicke under center and their defense playing much better football as of late, it makes sense as their approach in games has changed.

Over the last four games, Robinson is averaging 49.3 rushing yards, and he’s gone over the 33.5 total in three of those four. The Eagles’ run defense has been vulnerable all year as they rank 27th in DVOA and 31st in success rate allowed. They also allow opponents to average 5.2 YPC, the fourth-most. Robinson should be able to take advantage of this matchup.

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DeVonta Smith Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel)

It’s been a quieter season overall for the former Heisman winner, but it’s DeVonta Smith’s birthday today, so it’s only fair that we back the Eagles’ receiver in the player props department. The last time Smith played on his birthday, he caught four balls for 66 yards and two touchdowns while going up against Patrick Surtain, perhaps the best cornerback in the NFL.

When Smith played the Commanders earlier this season, he finished with eight catches for 169 yards and a touchdown in his best game of the year to date. While Washington’s defense has improved overall since their tough start to the year, Jalen Hurts ranks third in the NFL in passer rating and is playing at home. He’ll be sure to look Smith’s way to help him celebrate his birthday.

My biggest question with this prop was whether to go with receptions or yards. Frankly, I believe both will hit tonight, and you can have confidence either way. You can get the receptions prop at plus money across the board, but I landed on the yardage prop as there’s a solid chance Smith can break a long play tonight. Let’s hope the Eagles receiver celebrates his birthday in style.

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Curtis Samuel Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel)

Taylor Heinicke has been feeding Terry McLaurin with a 28.4% target share in games he’s played, but this is the toughest matchup McLaurin will face all year against the Eagles who rank first in DVOA against WR1s. While McLaurin went for 102 yards earlier in the year against Philly, almost half of that came on one broken play and much of it came in garbage time.

Curtis Samuel has been uber consistent with Heinicke under center as he’s gone for 50+ receiving yards in four of his last five games. Ironically, that one game where he missed is the one where we bet on him on Thursday Night Football against the Bears, but you have to have a short memory in sports betting sometimes, and the handicap is strong here.

The Eagles will be without starting nickel cornerback Avonte Maddox tonight as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. That’s a notable loss as he’s allowing just an 85.9 passer rating in coverage, the sixth-best mark of slot corners with 150+ snaps per PFF. Samuel will take advantage of the Eagles’ backup in that position, and he should find great success.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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