Sports Handle Update for NFL Futures
DraftKings Sportsbook has recently provided some great data on the splits for the NFL Super Bowl bets going on. There are quite a few teams bringing in the cash, and I am pretty surprised at where the current handle lies.
First off, no surprise, the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs lie at #1 in terms of percentage of bets and handle. Their odds are at +300, which is honestly a pretty good value for a team with Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has 21% of the handle and 30% of the total bets placed.
Last year Mahomes came back to win games in the playoffs three straight times, and the scary part is that he may not have to do that at all this year. The Chiefs’ defense is playing very, very well. Meanwhile, the offense is a bit slower but can still ramp up and score points at will on most teams.
The second-place team makes sense due to the name, and that is Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The team sits at +1100 and has 14% of the handle and 10% of the bets. The Bucs have been rather inconsistent this year, but it is hard for the public to bet against Brady. I would not mind this bet if Tampa Bay somehow sneaks up to +1500; however, with the way the public is playing, I doubt we see that happen.
Ravens and Steelers
The third and fourth teams are the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, both coming in with 7% of the handle. The Ravens’ odds are all the way down at +1800 after some very poor performances. At the same time, the Steelers sit undefeated and at +550. Neither of these are bad bets, but I think that the Ravens just offer more value, as this bet is banking on the defense getting healthy and playing a lot better. The thing is, at +1800, you can afford that risk.
Rounding out the top five is Seattle at +1300, coming in with 6% of the handle and 4% of the bets. This is purely a bet on Russell Wilson willing an entire team to a Super Bowl. The crazy part is that it is not a bad bet. Wilson has been unstoppable, only slowing down a touch in recent games. This value is not bad because no one can cover Metcalf and Lockett with Wilson passing, so it will take a Mahomes-like performance to outscore this team.
Interestingly enough, my favorite bet did not even make the top ten, and that is the Los Angeles Rams. The team has been sneaky good this season all due to one of the best secondaries I have seen the past few years. The Rams are at +1200, and with the way that the secondary is playing, very few teams are going to have success with their normal style of game. We have seen Wilson and Brady mightily struggle, which gives the Rams a decent path to the Super Bowl if the team can repeat those performances in the playoffs. This is my pick currently for the best value on DraftKings.