The Orioles suffered a huge blow when they lost closer Felix Bautista to a UCL injury, but they have to keep their focus on winning the AL East as September approaches. Handling business against the White Sox on Wednesday will make that journey one step easier. Kyle Gibson gets the start for Baltimore, while Dylan Cease will start for Chicago. The Orioles are home favorites at -162 on the moneyline.
Let’s make predictions for Wednesday’s matchup and break down why the under might be the way to go.
White Sox vs. Orioles Prediction
The Orioles have the better chance to win this game, but the White Sox might be a bit undervalued. Cease, for as much as he’s struggled, is due for some positive regression and is facing an Orioles team that doesn’t walk often – that’s an area that’s given him plenty of trouble.
Orioles starter Kyle Gibson has also hit some bumps of late, allowing an uptick in home runs. The problem for the White Sox is simply how depleted the roster is at the moment. Gibson gives up his share of hits, but there is very little power outside of Luis Robert in this White Sox lineup. It’s tough to trust a collection of singles hitters to capitalize on Gibson.
On the other side, the Orioles have put together a strong offensive month but are facing a pitcher who still misses bats and limits home runs. Under 9 runs makes more sense here than either moneyline in this series finale.
White Sox vs. Orioles Prediction: Under 9 Runs (-110)
White Sox vs. Orioles Odds
The Orioles are home favorites at -162 on the moneyline. The over/under is 9 runs.
The White Sox might be a slightly better value than their line would indicate, thanks to some positive regression expected for Cease plus Gibson’s recent bumps, but it’s easy to understand why Chicago is a road underdog after dealing off so much talent.
White Sox vs. Orioles Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide White Sox vs. Orioles.
Orioles Lineup vs. Dylan Cease’s Control Issues
Cease has gone from Cy Young runner-up in 2022 to a replacement-level pitcher in 2023. His underlying numbers, including a FIP that sits a full run better than his ERA, indicate he should be better than that. Still, control issues are the source of many of his problems.
Cease is walking 4.3 batters per nine innings, interestingly not a huge jump from last season but still his worst mark since 2020. They’ve picked up lately. Cease has walked 19 batters in 23 IP this month, including seven Yankees when New York’s lineup was at its lowest point. He was able to work around the walks that night, but not against the A’s when he was tagged for 8 ER last week.
For as much power as the Orioles have, they don’t walk too often. Baltimore is averaging 3.12 walks per game, 22nd in baseball. If this is going to be a three true outcomes game, considering Cease is a strikeout-reliant pitcher, the Orioles might need to stay patient and find ways to walk.
Luis Robert vs. Kyle Gibson
Monday night’s game between these two teams summed up the reality for the White Sox. Luis Robert had two hits. The rest of the lineup had none. Robert continues to look like someone who deserves to be an MVP finalist, even if the rest of the offense surrounding him offers virtually nothing. Kyle Gibson will have to be extra careful with Robert as long as that’s true.
Gibson has posted his typical numbers this season, giving the Orioles many innings while also allowing his share of hits and posting an ERA in the mid-to-high 4’s. He’s turned a strong home run rate into a trouble spot of late, allowing five homers in his last four games.
Gibson will have to be careful not to let Robert put one over the wall and give the White Sox some life. If he handles Robert, it’s tough to see where else the power might come from for Chicago.
White Sox vs. Orioles Starting Lineups
White Sox Starting Lineup
SS Tim Anderson R
LF Andrew Benintendi L
CF Luis Robert R
DH Eloy Jimenez R
3B Yoan Moncada L
1B Andrew Vaughn R
RF Oscar Colas L
2B Lenyn Sosa R
C Korey Lee R
Orioles Starting Lineup
C Adley Rutschman S
SS Gunnar Henderson L
RF Anthony Santander S
DH Ryan Mountcastle R
1B Ryan O’Hearn L
LF Austin Hays R
CF Cedric Mullins L
3B Ramon Urias R
2B Adam Frazier L