Wisconsin vs. Purdue kicks off this Friday at 7:00 pm EST in West Lafayette as a home game for the Boilermakers. Wisconsin is currently a -6 favorite and -215 on the moneyline while the total is set at 54. Read on for more Wisconsin vs. Purdue best bets and predictions as the Badgers are poised to win outright in this Big Ten battle.
Wisconsin Vs. Purdue Prediction & Best Bet – Badgers Moneyline
It was expected that the Wisconsin offense would need some time to adjust to a whole new scheme and that was made apparent when they suffered a non-conference loss to Washington State. While that certainly raised some concerns for their season long outlook, Badger fans can rest assured that they are on the right track as their offense starts to find their footing heading into conference play.
While Georgia Southern is certainly no measuring stick for success, it was welcoming to see that the Badgers found success by going back to their roots and abusing the run. With quarterback Tanner Mordecai struggling with efficiency under center, the Badgers have turned to their stable of running backs to generate production and limit the amount of stalled out drives.
They now get a Purdue defense who has mightily struggled at stopping the run, ranking a lowly 70th in Def Rush Success Rate, 71st in Def Rush PPA, and 114th in Def Rush Explosiveness. Potential disaster for the Purdue rush defense as Wisconsin’s running back duo of Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen both average over six yards per carry.
Off the back of their running ability, Wisconsin ranks 36th in Rush PPA and 25th in Rush Success Rate. Granted their Rush Explosiveness dips to below average marks, yet their ability to routinely cover half the distance to gain will constantly keep Wisconsin’s offense in a position to clear the first down mark with ease. By churning out chunks of yards at a time, this limits the number of times that the offense needs to rely on Mordecai’s arm which has been shaky to start the season.
Speaking of the ground game, running is optional at best for the Purdue Boilermakers as they run at one of the lower rates in the nation. While a brunt of their success is dependent on the pass, the Badgers second level will need to keep an eye on Purdue’s running back Devin Mockobee who is capable of exploiting the Badgers rush defense. Mockobee is more of conservative type runner over explosiveness, giving the Badgers secondary insurance that they can stay back in pass protection while their line can stuff the gaps.
Wisconsin Vs. Purdue Prediction & Best Bet: Wisconsin ML Parlay Piece
Wisconsin Vs. Purdue Betting Odds
Even with the offense still figuring out how to excel under their new fast-paced scheme, oddsmakers still believe this is the Badgers game to lose as they opened Wisconsin as a -7 favorite. Bettors have tempered those expectations and have bet Purdue down to +6 in some shops as of writing. While -6 certainly has value, I will take the added security by tying their ML into a moneyline parlay with someone else. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for an update of who I pair their ML with.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 48.5. Bettors believe points will be scored at an even faster pace, betting the total up to as high as 54. That comes as no surprise as both defenses have yet to consistently limit opposing drives down the field with both Def Success Rate’s ranking at 78th or worse.
Wisconsin Vs. Purdue Key Matchups
Can Wisconsin’s front seven contain dual threat quarterback Hudson Card?
Hudson Card Vs. Wisconsin Front Seven
With the run game being optional at best, the Purdue offense lives and breathes through their quarterback Hudson Card’s production. He’s off to a slow start in the touchdown department, but he has had no issue with moving the ball down the field by throwing for 825 yards on 110 attempts.
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 17, 2023
With Wisconsin struggling to contain opposing Success Rate, it will be up to their second level to continue to limit Card’s lack of scores. Especially with Card having a tendency to run near the end zone. Lucky for the Badgers, with a shorter field to cover comes an easier time to spy and move in coverage at the same time. Potentially engaging Purdue’s red zone offense, giving the Badgers the opportunity to pull away when on the other end.