The Yankees have found a rhythm in their series against the Tigers, but it’s a bit too late to contend for the postseason. New York will try to keep climbing back to respectability on Thursday, with Clarke Schmidt on the mound facing Matt Manning. The Yankees are slight road favorites at -130 on the moneyline.
Let’s make predictions for Thursday’s matchup and break down why the Tigers are a better value.
Yankees vs. Tigers Prediction
The Yankees got the better of the Tigers early in the series, even getting a great start out of Luis Severino. What’s true about the Yankees is true about the Tigers: they can be prone to some terrible nights offensively. There’s reason to believe that might change on Thursday.
Schmidt has struggled with consistency this season. While he’s been better lately, aside from one major blowup, his struggles against left-handed hitters could be an issue against a lineup anchored by two lefties in Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter, Greene, and Spencer Torkelson have hit a slight power drought after some real success earlier in August, but Schmidt’s propensity for home runs gives them a chance to find a rhythm.
The Yankees are going up against an inconsistent starter themselves, but Manning’s ability to limit hits could work well against a New York lineup that hits just .228. With the Tigers at home and the Yankees struggling to sustain any kind of run this summer, Detroit looks like a better value at +100.
Yankees vs. Tigers Prediction: Tigers Moneyline (+110)
Yankees vs Tigers Odds: Yankees -130 Favorites
The Yankees are slight road favorites at -130 on the moneyline, though lines have been shifting toward the Tigers. The over/under is 8.5 runs.
Surprisingly, these are two teams with similar profiles: Light-hitting, certainly a little bit of power, and two young, inconsistent, but promising pitchers. Will the Tigers be able to take advantage of Clarke Schmidt’s struggles against lefties?
Yankees vs. Tigers Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Yankees vs. Tigers.
Yankees’ Low-Contact Lineup vs. Matt Manning
Inconsistency has hurt Manning this season, but his positive flashes have been especially encouraging. That includes six hitless innings as part of a combined no-hitter against the Blue Jays and a one-hit gem against the Astros last week. The Yankees don’t have many pure contact bats, which could help Manning coast through this game.
Manning is allowing 7.2 hits per nine innings and has a terrific 1.06 WHIP through 13 starts. Home runs have popped up as an issue for him, resulting in an elevated WHIP, but hits might be tough for the Yankees to produce.
New York is 29th in baseball with a .228 team AVG, and even Aaron Judge has struggled to hit for consistent contact in the last two weeks. Gleyber Torres is the only Yankees hitter consistently producing hits right now, and the last six weeks have made it clear: One or two hot hitters at a time is not enough for this team.
Tigers Power Hitters vs. Clarke Schmidt
The Tigers are just 1-6 in their last six games, and it isn’t tough to see why. Earlier in August, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson were shocking teams with their power and getting help from Riley Greene and Jake Rogers among others. The Tigers then hit only five home runs in six games – four from hitters who don’t typically hit for power.
The big bats have to start stepping up again for the Tigers to have a chance, and they showed signs on Wednesday when Rogers and Torkelson went deep.
Schmidt has a 1.3 HR/9 rate, a bit elevated but also partly a product of his ugly start to the season. Schmidt has also struggled against lefties, allowing a .303 AVG and .893 OPS when facing a left-hander. Greene and Carpenter are both lefties, as are Akil Baddoo, Zach McKinstry, and Parker Meadows. Greene and Carpenter could cause issues if Schmidt’s lefty struggles persist.
Yankees vs. Tigers Starting Lineups
Yankees Starting Lineup
1B DJ LeMahieu R
RF Aaron Judge R
2B Gleyber Torres R
DH Giancarlo Stanton R
SS Anthony Volpe R
CF Harrison Bader R
LF Everson Pereira R
C Kyle Higashioka R
3B Oswald Peraza R
Tigers Starting Lineup
LF Akil Baddoo L
CF Riley Greene L
1B Spencer Torkelson R
DH Kerry Carpenter L
2B Zach McKinstry L
3B Matt Vierling R
CF Parker Meadows L
SS Javier Baez R
C Jake Rogers R