Oakland Raiders Week 14 Matchup Breakdown

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
12/10/17 @ 1:00 PM EST

The Chiefs open as a four-point favorite against the visiting Raiders in Week 14. The over/under line is 47.5 points.

The Chiefs do not look much like a team that should be favored at this point. After starting 5-0 and looking like the class of the NFL, Kansas City has lost six of seven games and four games in a row. The Chiefs are now 6-6. The Chiefs have lost to the underwhelming New York Giants, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets the last three weeks.

The Chiefs’ collapse has made things interesting in the AFC West. Oakland and the Los Angeles Chargers are both 6-6 as well. So as uninspiring as it seems, this is a big AFC December game.

Again, seeing the Chiefs as a four-point favorite in their current state may raise eyebrows. But the truth is Oakland isn’t playing great, either, even though they have won three of their past four games. The Raiders wins in the past quarter came against the underwhelming likes of the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos and New York Giants. In the past two games, the Raiders struggled to win at home against the Broncos and the Giants (who are a combined 5-19) and who started Paxton Lynch and Geno Smith at quarterback, respectively.

The Raiders are not horrible. They are average. They can beat bad teams. Kansas City certainly fills that description these days. The Raiders have already beaten the Chiefs this year, on Oct. 19, in a 31-30 thriller that was probably the best game in the entire NFL this season.

The over bet is enticing in this game. The Chiefs scored 31 points Sunday against the Jets and become the first NFL team in 16 years to lose even thigh it had six offensive plays of 30 yards or more. The Oakland defense is improving some (against weak competition) under John Pagano, who replaced the fired Ken Norton Jr. as defensive coordinator two weeks ago.

Still, this is a bad defensive matchup for Oakland. They have trouble covering tight ends. The Chiefs’ Travis Kelce is elite. Kansas City receiver Tyreek Hill had six catches for 125 yards against Oakland in October. The Raiders struggle against speed receivers. So, points may be plentiful.

For the Raiders to keep the Chiefs’ contained, they must harass quarterback Alex Smith. He was comfortable against the Jets. Oakland’s pass-rush has improved the past two weeks and Oakland coaches are happy with better coverage in the secondary. Eight of Oakland’s 22 sacks have come in the past two weeks. Oakland pass-rushers Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin have performed well in the past two weeks. They need to get Smith off his game.

Offensively, the Raiders have improved in the ground game, starting tailback Marshawn Lynch had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season against the Giants, who have the worst run defense in the NFL. The Chiefs can’t play against the run, either. They are 30th in the NFL in run defense. They are allowing 129.4 yards per game on the ground.

If Lynch, who has been playing better in the past month, can get going that would help Oakland keep the Chiefs off the field. The Raiders would love to get Amari Cooper healthy enough to play. His one above average game since October 2016 came against the Chiefs this year when he had 210 yards receiving and two touchdowns. However, Cooper missed the Giants’ game with a concussion and an ankle injury. Oakland coach Jack Del Rio is hopeful Cooper will be ready. But it’s no sure thing.

Overall, expect some points to be scored in this game. These are two even teams. But again, this is a tough matchup for the Raiders defensively. In the first round, the Raiders got the breaks. The Chiefs are due for some breaks. That may be the difference in a close game.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24

Check out all the matchup info for this game at, https://www.lineups.com/nfl/matchups/2017/12-10/oak-raiders-kc-chiefs