Aaron Rodgers 2020 Fantasy Value & Outlook

The Green Bay Packers had a confusing draft and an uneventful free agency. After a 13-3 record, you can understand the desire to not make drastic changes. However, the Packers struggled in run defense and lacked the necessary weapons to maximize Aaron Rodger’s talent. This offseason was supposed to address both needs. Instead, the Packers took future QB Jordan Love, reached for physical running back AJ Dillion, and signed a mid-round tight end. The Packers now enter 2020 with only 1 star receiving threat in Davante Adams and a whole lot of uncertainty for Aaron Rodgers. Because of this puzzling offseason, Aaron Rodgers’s fantasy upside continues to get bleaker as he ages.

2019 Recap

The eye test will argue that Aaron Rodgers regressed in the 2019 season. While the Packers excelled to a 13-3 record and a trip to the NFC Championship Gamer, many will argue that the proclaimed “bad man” was anything but. However, his statistics show otherwise. Rodgers threw for 4002 yards, 26 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 62% completion percentage. By all means, this was another statistically average year. Rodgers typically throws between 3800-4400 passing yards a season, for roughly 30 touchdowns. While the touchdowns were not as high as some of his peak years, it was not a career-low season. On the upside, Rodgers threw his second-lowest interception total in his career (4) helping his interception percentage drop (interception/per pass attempt) drop below 1%. In my eyes, Rodgers had a statistically average season. It just may not bring the most value at the quarterback position.

2020 Projections

Lineups projects that Aaron Rodgers will have a similar season to 2019 with 3993 Pass Yds, 23 TDs, and 272 fantasy points. What will hurt Aaron Rodgers’s fantasy value is the lack of touchdowns. The Packers lack any type of red-zone threat beyond Davonte Adams. Also, with a strong running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion, I would question a Packers offense if they didn’t choose to run the ball during goal-line situations.

Simply put, the receiving threats outside of Davonte Adams are inconsistent or unproven. Devin Funchess had a wildly inconsistent year for the Carolina Panthers. Jace Sternberger and Josiah Deguara are unproven tight-ends. Allen Lazard shows promise but is by no means a sure bet. The lack of quality receiving targets could lead to more drops, incompletions, and interceptions, which will hurt Rodgers’s fantasy value.

Almost everyone is down on Aaron Rodgers after a mediocre 2019 and Green Bay's selection of Jordan Love.

Is he now a fantasy football value option in your drafts with so many quick to turn against him? https://t.co/mTq61JYET7

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) May 19, 2020

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 66.2 QB 12
Auction Value: $5

Aaron Rodgers’s ADP sits at 66.2 which is higher than Dak Prescott (71.3) and Carson Wentz (79.5), both of which I believe will have better seasons than Rodgers. I believe Aaron Rodgers is a risk at that draft position given the lack of quality receiving targets. Also, age is important to consider. Aaron Rodgers will be 36 this season and could show a further decline in his athleticism. This would negatively affect his rushing value for 2020 and beyond. He sits at the 12th ranked quarterback, but as the 6th ranked quarterback in average draft position. I believe that Aaron Rodgers continues to be overvalued due to his name, which has directly translated to his high ADP. I prefer to take Aaron Rodger’s later averaging his draft position between 85-95.

Floor

Aaron Rodgers could regress this season due to age. He also doesn’t have a clean injury history. Both factors negatively impact his floor as he may not be on the field and may have limited mobility outside of the pocket. Also, the limited receiving options should negatively affect his statistics. Thus, I believe his floor is lower compared to most quarterbacks ranked similarly.

Ceiling

I believe Aaron Rodgers has a low ceiling. The past two seasons were similar statistically and he is only getting old. His ceiling of 40 touchdowns and 4,400 yards are behind him. I don’t see much potential beyond 30 touchdowns and 4100 receiving yards giving his offensive unit. He is not in the best situation as a quarterback which will reflect in his fantasy points.

Packers Offense

As mentioned above the Packer’s offense lacks quality skill position players. The tight-end unit is either old or unproven and the wide receiving unit lacks a playmaker at the Y and Z alignments. There is no insurance for if Davonte Adams gets injured which could force the coaching staff to lean on the running game. The question is why the Packers choose to handicap their offense?

We may not find out. After a 13-3 season in which Aaron Rodgers lacked the necessary weapons to push them into the Superbowl, the missing piece was available in the form of Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Tee Higgins, or even Justin Jefferson if they traded up. An acquisition of one of these playmaking wide-receivers would have given boosted my projections for Aaron Rodgers. I also don’t have confidence that the Packers want to be a pass-heavy team. The 2nd round addition of A.J. Dillion adds a big-bodied running back to an already strong mix of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Dedicating a high draft pick signals the desire to make A.J. Dillion a huge part of the offense next season, potentially limiting Aaron Rodgers’s passing opportunities.

Strength of Schedule

The Packers benefit from facing the Lions twice but also face the disadvantage of playing the Vikings and Bears, two great pass defenses. However, the rest of the schedule looks promising for Aaron Rodgers, with games against the Jaguars, Falcons, Buccaneers, Texans, and Panthers, all teams whose secondaries do not look on paper. Aaron Rodgers has the opportunities, but if his playmakers cannot deliver Rodgers may have a disappointing 2020 campaign. This could only fuel the looming QB controversy between Rodgers and 1st round pick Jordan Love.

Overall, I believe Rodgers is a solid fantasy option. He has the knowledge and athleticism to still make all the throws in the book. I think he is a bit overvalued due to his name but if Rodgers somehow drops to the eight-round, I would take the chance given his pedigree.