Allen Robinson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2021
As the lone bright spot on a terrible Chicago Bears offense, Allen Robinson was the best-kept secret of the 2020 NFL season. Even with subpar quarterback play from Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles, Robinson still managed to be one of the top PPR and standard scoring receiving threats in fantasy football. Anyone that watched the Bears last season knew Robinson was their only offensive weapon, and he still couldn’t be stopped. Playing under the franchise tag this upcoming season, Robinson has a lot to prove to the Bears organization if he wants a long-term deal. He should put up monster numbers this season since the Bears have upgraded their quarterbacks by obtaining Andy Dalton from free agency and Justin Fields from the draft.
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Again, it can not be stressed enough how impressive these numbers are given Robinson’s situation. Robinson managed to be a top 15 fantasy receiver in an offense that ranked 21st in passing yards per game. That doesn’t happen unless you are really, really good like Robinson is. Robinson had some monster weeks when he put up 123 yards and 1 touchdown against Atlanta and the same stat line against Houston later. Robinson did have some stinkers as he struggled against the Giants and Vikings, but he was a great WR2 and even a borderline WR1 for the 2020 season.
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I can only see Robinson’s stock going up since he can’t possibly have worse quarterback play than he did last season. Mitch Trubisky did not live up to his #2 overall draft selection, and Nick Foles wasn’t much better. Robinson was one of the top receiving dogs from last season and should remain one of the top fantasy receiving threats for the upcoming season. While he is not on the same level as Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams, he can still score consistently, which you want from a WR2. All Robinson needs is better quarterback play, and he could be a star. And with the steady play of Andy Dalton and the upside of Justin Fields, we could see Robinson take a massive leap and have a breakout year. Another problem Robinson faces is that the Bears play a challenging schedule, which will curb his numbers.
ADP & Auction Value
ADP: 37, Rounds 2-3, WR 11
Auction Value: $23
Right now, Robinson is projected as the 11-13 WR off the board. Allen Robinson, Terry McLaurin, and Mike Evans all fight for that top WR2 position and hover around the same draft position. This makes sense as Robinson is not a true must-start WR1, but he is good enough to be a great WR2 for a championship team. I should know. I had him for my championship PPR league team and was rarely disappointed. While not a superstar, Robinson is just a strong, consistent scorer, and anyone who knows fantasy football knows how hard it is to obtain a good consistent scorer like Robinson.
The floor for Robinson is much more likely to happen than for him to reach his ceiling. Right now, he has the floor of a bottom-tier WR2 or high WR3, which is better than most receivers in the league. Robinson will always get his touches. It’s just how many of those touches will be 2-yard screens or 30-yard touchdowns. Robinson also has many difficult matchups throughout the season, which could limit his production. However, the main issue is the elephant in the Chicago locker room, the quarterback position. If Andy Dalton turns into Playoff Andy or Justin Fields doesn’t work out, then that will be the true nail in the coffin for Robinson’s 2021 fantasy season.
The sky is the limit for Robinson if Justin Fields is the next great generational quarterback. Robinson has produced multiple 1,000-yard receiving seasons with Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky as his quarterbacks, so imagine Robinson with a superstar quarterback. Robinson’s ceiling is highly contingent on Justin Fields and develops into the player we think he is this season. Still, if he does, then Robinson could easily be a Top 10 WR and maybe climb into the Top 5 elite, cream of the crop WR category.
Chicago Bears Offense
The long sad story of the Bears is that they have a spectacular defense and fall short of true Super Bowl contention because of their inept offense, and last season was no different. The Bears ranked 25th in total offense in what would become the tragic end of the Mitch Trubisky experiment. The Bears averaged a mediocre 23.3 points per game, but that was only because they scored 36 against the Texans and 41 against the Jaguars. Against the real competition, they only scored 9 against the Saints and 11 against the Colts. Make no mistake. This Bears offense was painful to watch because of the lack of creativity in the play calls and the inability of Matt Nagy and the coaching staff to put the players in positions they could succeed. The Bears did trade up to pick their franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, who could spark the Bears’ need to become a playoff threat.
Strength of Schedule
The matchups are not favorable for Allen Robinson this upcoming season. The Bears have the 3rd toughest strength of schedule heading into the season, and in the first game, he has to go up against Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams, who ranked #1 in the fewest passing yards allowed last season. He also has to face off against Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Green Bay Packers squads, all ranked in the top 10 in the fewest passing yards allowed last season. Robinson doesn’t only have to play against juggernaut passing defense as he does get some cupcakes in the Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks. All of those teams were notorious for their swiss cheese passing defenses, and all of those teams ranked top 10 for most passing yards allowed in the league. This should be a roller-coaster season for Robinson as his easy games are mixed with his more difficult games.
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