The Chicago Bears 2019 season was dominated by headlines of Mitch Trubisky’s struggles at the quarterback position. A team with an elite defense and by all means a win-now roster failed to make the playoffs behind their poor quarterback play. Sadly, after another offseason, Mitch Trubisky remains the face of the franchise and will potentially hold the team back in 2020.
Forgotten in these headlines was wide receiver Allen Robinson’s fantastic season. Despite the poor quarterback play, Allen Robinson put up nearly 100 receptions for 1147 receiving yards. When healthy, the wide receiver shines, continually proving that he is capable of carrying an offense. However, poor quarterback play has at times hindered his dominance leading one to speculate his true ceiling behind an elite quarterback. Regardless of who’s behind the snap, Allen Robinson has shined and will continue to shine in 2020.
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Despite Mitch Trubisky’s crippling struggles at quarterback last year, wide receiver Allen Robinson shined, showing that he is capable of carrying the offensive load. In 2019, Robinson produced 98 receptions for 1147 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns. Robinson had a huge impact in fantasy leagues, tallying 254 fantasy points at a rate of 15.9 fantasy points per game. After an ACL injury during week one of the 2017 season, Robinson proved that he is an elite wide receiver in the NFL and the number one option on a weak Chicago Bears receiving unit.
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I am confident that Allen Robinson will have a great season despite the problems at the quarterback. Despite the poor quarterback play at Jacksonville and now with the Bears, Robinson has proved he could still produce elite numbers. However, Robinson carries a lot of risks even for his ADP. Lineups agrees projecting Robinson to finish 2020 with 79 receptions for 922 yards and seven touchdowns. Lineups also believes that Robinson’s will produce 213 fantasy points and 13.31 points per game.
What makes Robinson so risky is the lack of viable receiving threats, injury history, and spotty quarterback play. As constructed, Robinson is the only viable receiving threat. Ted Ginn Jr. is a speedy, but aging wide-receiver with limited value. Anthony Miller, a former second-round pick, has failed to prove himself. Tight-end Jimmy Graham has been a disappointment ever since he left New Orleans and Cole Kmet is a rookie tight-end who won’t receive much playing time. With this poor supporting cast, defenses will key-in on Robinson, which could limit his production.
Injuries are another concern for Robinson. The receiver has been a mixed bag with injuries playing three full seasons and three injury-plagued seasons. I would expect this trend to continue throughout his career, potentially limiting his production.
Lastly, Mitch Trubisky struggled mightily in 2019. At some points, Trubisky looked scared to throw the ball downfield to wide-open receivers, instead opting for check-downs or quick passes in the flat. It amazes me that Robinson tallied the numbers he did given all the missed opportunities at the hands of Trubisky. If Trubisky continues to struggle, Robinson could miss out on opportunities to boost his fantasy value.
Highest catch rate on contested targets since 2017
1. Stefon Diggs – 61%
2. Michael Thomas – 60%
3. Chris Godwin – 59%
3. Allen Robinson – 59% pic.twitter.com/QvCXlwNCOT
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 6, 2020
ADP: 33.5 WR:14
Auction Value $20
Allen Robinson’s ADP is 33.5 and auction value is 20. In terms of ADP, Robinson ranks 13th, a near borderline WR1 in most leagues. I think Robinson’s position is fair, given all the aforementioned risks associated with the receiver. If healthy, any owner is most likely getting a top-ten wide receiver as far as production is concerned and maybe closer to top five if he reaches his career-high 1400 receiving yards in 2015. If not, you are losing value drafting him at this position.
I have a lower floor for Robinson than most receivers near his rankings. Robinson struggles with consistency, in part due to injury and at times due to quarterback play. He also lacks the supporting cast to prevent double teams and schemes designed to disrupt his routes. However, his floor should be higher in Non-PPR as he is capable of being a touchdown machine. In 2015, Robinson caught 14 touchdown passes with the Jaguars. In his other healthy seasons, he caught six and seven touchdowns respectively. I could see the trend continuing in the future.
I think the Trubisky prevented Robinson from having an even better 2019 season. With Nick Foles as the backup, I do not see a drastic improvement if a quarterback change is necessary. This, along with injuries and lack of receiving weapons for the Bears leads me to believe that Robinson will not max out at 85+ receptions and 900+ receptions. As a WR1, I would be wary of these numbers. But as a top WR2, I would seriously consider taking the risk with Robinson.
The Bears were nowhere close to elite on offensive in 2019. One could even argue that their offensive struggles have started ever since they drafted Mitch Trubsky. In an effort to revitalize their offense and capitalize on a strong defense, the Bears brought in offensive coordinator Bill Lazer who is known for developing Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, and Ryan Tannehill. The move is an attempt to boost the play in Mitch Trubisky, who continues to disappoint. I am optimistic in Lazor’s abilities, but pessimistic in Mitch Trubisky’s play. I still believe that the quarterback lacks the intangibles to be a consistent playmaker, which will limit Robinson in 2020.
Strength of Schedule
The Chicago Bears have the 13th hardest schedule in the league in 2020. However, they play some poor pass defenses with their first six games coming against the Lions, Giants, Falcons, Colts, Buccaneers, and Panthers. I expect Robinson to be very productive in these first six games but expect him to struggle in weeks 7-12 as he faces the Rams, Packers, Vikings, Saints, and Titans. Because of this, Robinson could make for an intriguing trade target.
Robinson has shown throughout his career that he can overcome bad quarterback play. However, I am unsure whether he can overcome a poor receiving group and his injury history to have a career year. A lot of moving parts have to connect in order for Robinson to reach his ceiling. I’m just not sure he is the receiver that you want to bet on with an ADP of 33.5.