Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

The Cleveland Browns are in a position that they have never been before, and that position is being a contender. Once the laughing stock of the league, we are flocking to the Browns for big fantasy upside. Today we look at second-year quarterback, Baker Mayfield. His fantasy stock took a major jump in the offseason, and we will figure out if it is currently too high for drafts. Mayfield will look to follow up a terrific rookie season, and that is a little easier to do now with Odell Beckham Jr. now in town.

2018 Fantasy Recap

Baker Mayfield finished as QB16 last season, just smashed in between Mitchell Trubisky and Eli Manning. While the surrounding options may not lead you to believe he had a good fantasy season, but at his ADP he was a steal. Mayfield finished with 27 passing touchdowns, and didn’t do too much on the ground. Digging into the deeper numbers, Mayfield averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, which was on par with Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady. The Browns also had one of the better offensive lines to protect Mayfield, which is another reason for success and future success. As you can see in the tweet below, Mayfield was one of the best downfield passers, and will welcome one of the best deep threat wideouts.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

It might seem like I am low on Mayfield with the QB12 ranking for 2019, but we are jumping the gun quite a bit here. The strength of schedule for Mayfield is below average, but this offense should jump into being elite fantasy producers. 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns would be another great season for Mayfield, which is where his projections sit at the moment. There is room for improvement in the touchdown department, and if he can extend his rushing stats a tad, Mayfield’s ceiling is high, but it’s being overvalued.

When looking at the coaching staff, this is another reason to believe they will thrive. Freddie Kitchens is now the head coach, and the passing game thrived under him. They also threw over 70% of the time over the second half of the season. Todd Monken is coming over from Tampa, who had an all out aerial attack during his time there. Some of that can be chalked up to a poor running game and horrendous defense, but all signs still point to the Browns being pass happy. This bodes well for Mayfield’s upside.

In five seasons with Odell Beckham, Eli Manning had a 33% adjusted completion percentage (for drops) on throws 20+ yards in air — ranking 40th-of-45 QBs in span.

Baker Mayfield’s AC% on 20+ yard throws last year ranked 5th-best (48%; trailing only Brees/Carr/Mahomes/Rivers).

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) June 25, 2019

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Draft & Auction Value

The thing with Baker Mayfield right now is the hype around him, and it is driving his ADP and auction value up quite a bit. People are going to reach for Mayfield, and I will not be one of those people. Auction leagues might actually have the benefit of getting him for a lower price, where I can’t see him slipping past the sixth round in re-draft.

Mayfield is projected as the fifth quarterback off the board, with names like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, and Russell Wilson going behind. You also have names like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jameis Winston going five-six rounds after him. There really isn’t any value in Mayfield for where he is bring drafted. With that being said it is hard to justify his price tags.