Cam Newton Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

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Ranking: QB18, ADP: 7.12, Auction Value($200): $15, Team: CAR, BYE: Week 7

On June 12th, Panthers beat reporter Jourdan Rodrigue mentioned how Cam Newton had begun to change his throwing mechanics in order to take stress off his shoulder. The Carolina Panthers are clearly hoping this strategy works, as the Panthers collapse in the second half of the season was in large part due to Newton’s health problems.

Yes, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has tweaked his mechanics since 2018 – so what is different? QBs coach Scott Turner takes us in-depth on the specifics, the "what" and the "why": https://t.co/ou31fyvow3

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) June 12, 2019

 

 

 

The Panther season was going swell until they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers midseason. Not only did they lose by 38 points, but Cam Newton also injured his shoulder that game, an injury he never fully recovered from. After this game, the Panthers ended up losing 6 straight games to knock them out of the playoff race. The Panther’s offensive production took a hit after this game, as they averaged 26.8 points before, compared to just 19.3 points after. The Panthers offensive supporting cast is solid, with star running back Christian McCaffery and promising rookie receiver D.J. Moore, but none of it will matter if Cam can’t recover from his shoulder problems.

FPTS 2018	YDS	YDS/Gm	300+ YDS	CMP%	YDS/ATT	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	QBR	Yahoo PTS/GM
296	3395	242.5	3	67.95	7.2	10.6	24	13	94.2	21.1

Upside

Cam Newton was once the NFL’s MVP for a reason, as he’s been one of the most unique quarterbacks since entering the league. He’s built like a running back, and this allows him to absorb more hits and be more effective in the running game. Couple that with a cannon arm and you can see why he went number one in his draft. Before he went down, Newton was quietly having one of his best seasons since his MVP year. If he can make a full recovery and continue to develop in Norv Turner’s system, Newton could come close to replicating his MVP season. If all breaks right, he could end up throwing for just under 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns, along with over 500 yards on the ground and 6 rushing touchdowns.

Floor

Cam Newton’s accuracy has never been a strength of his, but he was always at least decent enough for it to not be a major minus. That was until his major shoulder injury last season. One scary comparison being made with Newton’s injury is Andrew Luck’s own shoulder injury. Even if he ended up making a full recovery from it, it took him more than a year to do so, and he missed an entire season as a result. His floor is hard to predict, but it is possible that he may end up missing an entire season for rehab.

What to Expect

Newton is currently rated as the 18th overall player at his position, with an average draft position in the 7th round. His auction value with a $200 budget is expected to be $15. While this may not be quite the steal that River’s auction value is, it’s cheap enough to warrant a risk.

His draft position should probably be lower considering his injury concerns, as picking him somewhere in the 10th or 11th round makes more sense. His injury is something that he’ll need to prove he an shake off, but the upside is high enough to make snagging him as a top tier backup worth it. Newton shares a lot of similarities with Wentz in that they both have tantalizing ceilings, but their injury history makes selecting them a scary proposition. However, given that Newton is half as cheap, the risk in selecting him isn’t as high.

Because of his injury, I expect Newton to get off to a slow start, but I also expect he’ll improve as the season goes on. The NFC south is a tough division, but I think Newton will reclaim his form and make them serious contenders again. A 3500 passing yards season with 25 passing touchdowns, along with 400 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns seems reasonable.