Carson Wentz Fantasy Outlook & Value 2019

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Ranking: QB17, ADP: 7.12, Auction Value($200): $30, Team: PHI, BYE: Week 10

On June 6th, just after signing his massive contract extension, Carson Wentz tweeted a video where he thanked the fans before saying, “By no means is the work done, we’re just getting started. This year is going to be special.” With such a hefty contract given to him, that’s exactly what the Eagles are hoping for.

https://twitter.com/cj_wentz/status/1136778497958076421

 

As just one of three quarterbacks being paid more than 30 million annually, Wentz must be expected to do great things. There was some debate over whether he was even worth that much. On one hand, he appeared to be the MVP favorite in just his second year before he got hurt, and he once again led the Eagles to a top 10 passing offense last season. His detractors however, will point to his extensive injury history, as well as the fact that he statistically declined last season from his sophomore year. Regardless, Wentz will still have all the weapons he needs in place to succeed next year. Receivers Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are returning, along with one of the best tight ends in Zach Ertz.

FPTS 2018	YDS	YDS/Gm	300+ YDS	CMP%	YDS/ATT	YDS/CMP	TD	INT	QBR	Yahoo PTS/GM
200	3074	230.2	5	69.6%	7.7	11.0	21	7	102.2	18.2

Upside

This one is easy, as Wentz showed in just his second season he could be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Before he tore his ACL, he was the MVP favorite. With a passer rating of over 100 in consecutive seasons, Wentz has a strong chance of being one of the better options in fantasy. Expect him to comfortably throw for over 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns if healthy.

Floor

That if healthy part however, is significant. Questions about Wentz’s long term durability over an entire season are valid, as he’s had 3 major injuries in just 5 years, dating back to college. As talented as Wentz is, he adds no value if he can’t even play. For that reason, drafting him as a starter can be quite risky. If he suffers another major injury this season, he’ll be lucky to throw for over 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns.

What to Expect

Due in large part to injury concerns, Wentz is currently rated as just the 17th overall player at his position. Still, his average draft position and auction value at a $200 dollar budget remain high, at the 7th round and $30 dollar respectively. For those reasons, I’d be quite wary of drafting Wentz high, as his injury history leaves him without the benefit of the doubt. Although the reward is enticing, there are just too many risks that come with it. He’ll have to prove he can stay healthy before earning my faith.

If you’re already dead-set on making Wentz your starter however, you should definitely invest in some backup options. Some solid choices that might still be on the board in later rounds would be Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Andy Dalton. For Wentz I’d expect him to once again shine when healthy, but I also think he’ll suffer an injury at some point in the season. Although I don’t think it’ll be as major as his ACL tear or back injury, I do think it’ll sideline him for 3 to 4 games. For that reason, I expect him to throw for around 3200 yards and just over the 20 touchdown mark.